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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.07487 |
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Table of Contents:
- Predicting extreme events in nonlinear dynamical systems is challenging due to a limited understanding of their statistical properties. This study numerically and theoretically investigates the statistical properties of infinite-modal maps arising from homoclinic bursting to predict extreme events. The numerical investigation presents bifurcation diagrams, Lyapunov exponents, height probability distributions, and interevent interval probability distributions for infinite-modal maps. The theoretical analysis derives analytical formulae for these statistical properties using a randomization theory of infinite-modal maps. Furthermore, a parameter estimation method for infinite-modal maps is proposed, utilizing the derived analytical formula, which enables practical application of the theoretical results. Finally, the study demonstrates the applicability of the approach in analyzing non-stationary data with time-dependent parameters. These findings provide a foundation for the prediction of extreme events based on their mechanism.