A mathematical model of vaccine hesitancy: Analysing the impact of political trends and the interaction across age and education groups in the USA
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866915486715871232 |
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| author | Ali, Wajid Mohamadichamgavi, Javad Ramirez, Juan Aguilar, Jose Anta, Antonio Fernández Sharkey, Kieran J. |
| author_facet | Ali, Wajid Mohamadichamgavi, Javad Ramirez, Juan Aguilar, Jose Anta, Antonio Fernández Sharkey, Kieran J. |
| contents | Vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 disease has significantly reduced its mortality rate and spread. However, despite its availability, a considerable proportion of the public has either refused or delayed getting vaccinated. This reluctance is known as vaccine hesitancy. The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical model to investigate how social interaction can impact vaccine hesitancy. The model describes the temporal transitions between different vaccination classes of the population (those vaccinated, those who are not yet vaccinated but agree to be vaccinated, and those who refuse). We apply the model to state and national survey data from the USA to estimate model parameters that quantify the rates at which public opinion on vaccination changes. Moreover, we investigate how political trends and demographic factors, such as age and education, impact these parameters. Our results show that state-level political affiliation, age, and educational level shape opinions on vaccination and have a strong influence on the temporal dynamics of attitude changes. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_07712 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | A mathematical model of vaccine hesitancy: Analysing the impact of political trends and the interaction across age and education groups in the USA Ali, Wajid Mohamadichamgavi, Javad Ramirez, Juan Aguilar, Jose Anta, Antonio Fernández Sharkey, Kieran J. Populations and Evolution Vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 disease has significantly reduced its mortality rate and spread. However, despite its availability, a considerable proportion of the public has either refused or delayed getting vaccinated. This reluctance is known as vaccine hesitancy. The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical model to investigate how social interaction can impact vaccine hesitancy. The model describes the temporal transitions between different vaccination classes of the population (those vaccinated, those who are not yet vaccinated but agree to be vaccinated, and those who refuse). We apply the model to state and national survey data from the USA to estimate model parameters that quantify the rates at which public opinion on vaccination changes. Moreover, we investigate how political trends and demographic factors, such as age and education, impact these parameters. Our results show that state-level political affiliation, age, and educational level shape opinions on vaccination and have a strong influence on the temporal dynamics of attitude changes. |
| title | A mathematical model of vaccine hesitancy: Analysing the impact of political trends and the interaction across age and education groups in the USA |
| topic | Populations and Evolution |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.07712 |