Taking the Weight Off: Mitigating Parameter Bias from Catastrophic Outliers in 3$\times$2pt Analysis
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| _version_ | 1866912756636057600 |
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| author | Mill, Carolyn McDonald Leonard, C. Danielle Rau, Markus Michael Uhlemann, Cora Joudaki, Shahab |
| author_facet | Mill, Carolyn McDonald Leonard, C. Danielle Rau, Markus Michael Uhlemann, Cora Joudaki, Shahab |
| contents | Stage IV cosmological surveys will map the universe with unprecedented precision, reducing statistical uncertainties to levels where unmodelled systematics can significantly bias inference. In particular, photometric redshift (photo-z) errors and intrinsic alignments (IA) must be robustly accounted for to ensure accurate inference of cosmological parameters. The increasing depth of Stage IV surveys exacerbates these challenges by producing low signal-to-noise galaxy populations prone to inaccurate photo-z measurements. Catastrophically misidentified redshifts are especially problematic for 3$\times$2pt inferences that combine weak lensing and galaxy clustering information. We demonstrate that even modest outlier fractions (e.g. 5%) can lead to substantial biases in cosmological parameter estimates: up to 1.8$σ$ in $Ω_M$ and $σ_8$, and over 8$σ$ in the IA redshift evolution parameter $η$. To address this, we introduce a flexible weighting scheme at the likelihood level that down-weights the most contamination-sensitive elements of the data vector during inference. This method mitigates biases without inflating the parameter space, reducing cosmological parameter biases to below 1$σ$ without substantially degrading constraining power. Our approach offers a practical solution for future analyses, enabling robust cosmological inference in the presence of catastrophic redshift errors. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_08052 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Taking the Weight Off: Mitigating Parameter Bias from Catastrophic Outliers in 3$\times$2pt Analysis Mill, Carolyn McDonald Leonard, C. Danielle Rau, Markus Michael Uhlemann, Cora Joudaki, Shahab Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics Stage IV cosmological surveys will map the universe with unprecedented precision, reducing statistical uncertainties to levels where unmodelled systematics can significantly bias inference. In particular, photometric redshift (photo-z) errors and intrinsic alignments (IA) must be robustly accounted for to ensure accurate inference of cosmological parameters. The increasing depth of Stage IV surveys exacerbates these challenges by producing low signal-to-noise galaxy populations prone to inaccurate photo-z measurements. Catastrophically misidentified redshifts are especially problematic for 3$\times$2pt inferences that combine weak lensing and galaxy clustering information. We demonstrate that even modest outlier fractions (e.g. 5%) can lead to substantial biases in cosmological parameter estimates: up to 1.8$σ$ in $Ω_M$ and $σ_8$, and over 8$σ$ in the IA redshift evolution parameter $η$. To address this, we introduce a flexible weighting scheme at the likelihood level that down-weights the most contamination-sensitive elements of the data vector during inference. This method mitigates biases without inflating the parameter space, reducing cosmological parameter biases to below 1$σ$ without substantially degrading constraining power. Our approach offers a practical solution for future analyses, enabling robust cosmological inference in the presence of catastrophic redshift errors. |
| title | Taking the Weight Off: Mitigating Parameter Bias from Catastrophic Outliers in 3$\times$2pt Analysis |
| topic | Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.08052 |