Who has the best probabilities? Luck versus skill in prediction tournaments
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866915488651542528 |
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| author | MacKay, Niall |
| author_facet | MacKay, Niall |
| contents | An informal and elementary introduction to probability scoring and forecast verification and improvement, slightly extended from Significance 22:3(2025)16, which might be useful for less mathematical readers as a prologue to the classic review by Gneiting and Raftery [Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation, Journal of the American Statistical Association 102 (2007): 359]. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_08744 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Who has the best probabilities? Luck versus skill in prediction tournaments MacKay, Niall Other Statistics 62 An informal and elementary introduction to probability scoring and forecast verification and improvement, slightly extended from Significance 22:3(2025)16, which might be useful for less mathematical readers as a prologue to the classic review by Gneiting and Raftery [Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation, Journal of the American Statistical Association 102 (2007): 359]. |
| title | Who has the best probabilities? Luck versus skill in prediction tournaments |
| topic | Other Statistics 62 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.08744 |