Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.09034 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866914031830302720 |
|---|---|
| author | da Rocha, Nathalia M. N. Ribeiro, Andre L. B. Oliveira, Francisco B. S. |
| author_facet | da Rocha, Nathalia M. N. Ribeiro, Andre L. B. Oliveira, Francisco B. S. |
| contents | The Hubble tension, a persistent discrepancy between early and late Universe measurements of $H_0$, poses a significant challenge to the standard cosmological model. In this work, we present a new Bayesian hierarchical framework designed to meticulously decompose this observed tension into its constituent parts: standard measurement errors, information loss arising from parameter-space projection, and genuine physical tension. Our approach, employing Fisher matrix analysis with MCMC-estimated loss coefficients and explicitly modeling information loss via variance inflation factors ($λ$), is particularly important in high-precision analysis where even seemingly small information losses can impact conclusions. We find that the real tension component ($T_{real}$) has a mean value of 5.94 km/s/Mpc (95\% CI: [3.32, 8.64] km/s/Mpc). Quantitatively, approximately 78\% of the observed tension variance is attributed to real tension, 13\% to measurement error, and 9\% to information loss. Despite this, our decomposition indicates that the observed $\sim$$6.39σ$ discrepancy is predominantly a real physical phenomenon, with real tension contributing $\sim$$5.64σ$. Our findings strongly suggest that the Hubble tension is robust and probably points toward new physics beyond the $Λ$CDM model. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_09034 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | On the True Significance of the Hubble Tension: A Bayesian Error Decomposition Accounting for Information Loss da Rocha, Nathalia M. N. Ribeiro, Andre L. B. Oliveira, Francisco B. S. Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics The Hubble tension, a persistent discrepancy between early and late Universe measurements of $H_0$, poses a significant challenge to the standard cosmological model. In this work, we present a new Bayesian hierarchical framework designed to meticulously decompose this observed tension into its constituent parts: standard measurement errors, information loss arising from parameter-space projection, and genuine physical tension. Our approach, employing Fisher matrix analysis with MCMC-estimated loss coefficients and explicitly modeling information loss via variance inflation factors ($λ$), is particularly important in high-precision analysis where even seemingly small information losses can impact conclusions. We find that the real tension component ($T_{real}$) has a mean value of 5.94 km/s/Mpc (95\% CI: [3.32, 8.64] km/s/Mpc). Quantitatively, approximately 78\% of the observed tension variance is attributed to real tension, 13\% to measurement error, and 9\% to information loss. Despite this, our decomposition indicates that the observed $\sim$$6.39σ$ discrepancy is predominantly a real physical phenomenon, with real tension contributing $\sim$$5.64σ$. Our findings strongly suggest that the Hubble tension is robust and probably points toward new physics beyond the $Λ$CDM model. |
| title | On the True Significance of the Hubble Tension: A Bayesian Error Decomposition Accounting for Information Loss |
| topic | Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.09034 |