Quantum Computing Technology Roadmaps and Capability Assessment for Scientific Computing -- An analysis of use cases from the NERSC workload

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Autori principali: Camps, Daan, Rrapaj, Ermal, Klymko, Katherine, Kim, Hyeongjin, Gott, Kevin, Darbha, Siva, Balewski, Jan, Austin, Brian, Wright, Nicholas J.
Natura: Preprint
Pubblicazione: 2025
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author Camps, Daan
Rrapaj, Ermal
Klymko, Katherine
Kim, Hyeongjin
Gott, Kevin
Darbha, Siva
Balewski, Jan
Austin, Brian
Wright, Nicholas J.
author_facet Camps, Daan
Rrapaj, Ermal
Klymko, Katherine
Kim, Hyeongjin
Gott, Kevin
Darbha, Siva
Balewski, Jan
Austin, Brian
Wright, Nicholas J.
contents The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), as the high-performance computing (HPC) facility for the Department of Energy's Office of Science, recognizes the essential role of quantum computing in its future mission. In this report, we analyze the NERSC workload and identify materials science, quantum chemistry, and high-energy physics as the science domains and application areas that stand to benefit most from quantum computers. These domains jointly make up over 50% of the current NERSC production workload, which is illustrative of the impact quantum computing could have on NERSC's mission going forward. We perform an extensive literature review and determine the quantum resources required to solve classically intractable problems within these science domains. This review also shows that the quantum resources required have consistently decreased over time due to algorithmic improvements and a deeper understanding of the problems. At the same time, public technology roadmaps from a collection of ten quantum computing companies predict a dramatic increase in capabilities over the next five to ten years. Our analysis reveals a significant overlap emerging in this time frame between the technological capabilities and the algorithmic requirements in these three scientific domains. We anticipate that the execution time of large-scale quantum workflows will become a major performance parameter and propose a simple metric, the Sustained Quantum System Performance (SQSP), to compare system-level performance and throughput for a heterogeneous workload.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_09882
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Quantum Computing Technology Roadmaps and Capability Assessment for Scientific Computing -- An analysis of use cases from the NERSC workload
Camps, Daan
Rrapaj, Ermal
Klymko, Katherine
Kim, Hyeongjin
Gott, Kevin
Darbha, Siva
Balewski, Jan
Austin, Brian
Wright, Nicholas J.
Quantum Physics
The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), as the high-performance computing (HPC) facility for the Department of Energy's Office of Science, recognizes the essential role of quantum computing in its future mission. In this report, we analyze the NERSC workload and identify materials science, quantum chemistry, and high-energy physics as the science domains and application areas that stand to benefit most from quantum computers. These domains jointly make up over 50% of the current NERSC production workload, which is illustrative of the impact quantum computing could have on NERSC's mission going forward. We perform an extensive literature review and determine the quantum resources required to solve classically intractable problems within these science domains. This review also shows that the quantum resources required have consistently decreased over time due to algorithmic improvements and a deeper understanding of the problems. At the same time, public technology roadmaps from a collection of ten quantum computing companies predict a dramatic increase in capabilities over the next five to ten years. Our analysis reveals a significant overlap emerging in this time frame between the technological capabilities and the algorithmic requirements in these three scientific domains. We anticipate that the execution time of large-scale quantum workflows will become a major performance parameter and propose a simple metric, the Sustained Quantum System Performance (SQSP), to compare system-level performance and throughput for a heterogeneous workload.
title Quantum Computing Technology Roadmaps and Capability Assessment for Scientific Computing -- An analysis of use cases from the NERSC workload
topic Quantum Physics
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.09882