An Interventional Approach to Real-Time Disaster Assessment via Causal Attribution

Fuente: arXiv
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Hauptverfasser: Vishnubhatla, Saketh, Beigi, Alimohammad, Foo, Rui Heng, Goel, Umang, Jeong, Ujun, Jiang, Bohan, Raglin, Adrienne, Liu, Huan
Format: Preprint
Veröffentlicht: 2025
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author Vishnubhatla, Saketh
Beigi, Alimohammad
Foo, Rui Heng
Goel, Umang
Jeong, Ujun
Jiang, Bohan
Raglin, Adrienne
Liu, Huan
author_facet Vishnubhatla, Saketh
Beigi, Alimohammad
Foo, Rui Heng
Goel, Umang
Jeong, Ujun
Jiang, Bohan
Raglin, Adrienne
Liu, Huan
contents Traditional disaster analysis and modelling tools for assessing the severity of a disaster are predictive in nature. Based on the past observational data, these tools prescribe how the current input state (e.g., environmental conditions, situation reports) results in a severity assessment. However, these systems are not meant to be interventional in the causal sense, where the user can modify the current input state to simulate counterfactual "what-if" scenarios. In this work, we provide an alternative interventional tool that complements traditional disaster modelling tools by leveraging real-time data sources like satellite imagery, news, and social media. Our tool also helps understand the causal attribution of different factors on the estimated severity, over any given region of interest. In addition, we provide actionable recourses that would enable easier mitigation planning. Our source code is publicly available.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_11676
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle An Interventional Approach to Real-Time Disaster Assessment via Causal Attribution
Vishnubhatla, Saketh
Beigi, Alimohammad
Foo, Rui Heng
Goel, Umang
Jeong, Ujun
Jiang, Bohan
Raglin, Adrienne
Liu, Huan
Machine Learning
Traditional disaster analysis and modelling tools for assessing the severity of a disaster are predictive in nature. Based on the past observational data, these tools prescribe how the current input state (e.g., environmental conditions, situation reports) results in a severity assessment. However, these systems are not meant to be interventional in the causal sense, where the user can modify the current input state to simulate counterfactual "what-if" scenarios. In this work, we provide an alternative interventional tool that complements traditional disaster modelling tools by leveraging real-time data sources like satellite imagery, news, and social media. Our tool also helps understand the causal attribution of different factors on the estimated severity, over any given region of interest. In addition, we provide actionable recourses that would enable easier mitigation planning. Our source code is publicly available.
title An Interventional Approach to Real-Time Disaster Assessment via Causal Attribution
topic Machine Learning
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.11676