Sentiment Feedback in Equity Markets: Asymmetries, Retail Heterogeneity, and Structural Calibration
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arXiv
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| author | Sneller, Lucas Marques |
| author_facet | Sneller, Lucas Marques |
| contents | We study how sentiment shocks propagate through equity returns and investor clientele using four independent proxies with sign-aligned kappa-rho parameters. A structural calibration links a one standard deviation innovation in sentiment to a pricing impact of 1.06 basis points with persistence parameter rho = 0.940, yielding a half-life of 11.2 months. The impulse response peaks around the 12-month horizon, indicating slow-moving amplification. Cross-sectionally, a simple D10-D1 portfolio earns 4.0 basis points per month with Sharpe ratios of 0.18-0.85, consistent with tradable exposure to the sentiment factor. Three regularities emerge: (i) positive sentiment innovations transmit more strongly than negative shocks (amplification asymmetry); (ii) effects are concentrated in retail-tilted and non-optionable stocks (clientele heterogeneity); and (iii) responses are state-dependent across volatility regimes - larger on impact in high-VIX months but more persistent in low-VIX months. Baseline time-series fits are parsimonious (R2 ~ 0.001; 420 monthly observations), yet the calibrated dynamics reconcile modest impact estimates with sizable long-short payoffs. Consistent with Miller (1977), a one standard deviation sentiment shock has 1.72-8.69 basis points larger effects in low-breadth stocks across horizons of 1-12 months, is robust to institutional flows, and exhibits volatility state dependence - larger on impact but less persistent in high-VIX months, smaller on impact but more persistent in low-VIX months. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_11970 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Sentiment Feedback in Equity Markets: Asymmetries, Retail Heterogeneity, and Structural Calibration Sneller, Lucas Marques Trading and Market Microstructure We study how sentiment shocks propagate through equity returns and investor clientele using four independent proxies with sign-aligned kappa-rho parameters. A structural calibration links a one standard deviation innovation in sentiment to a pricing impact of 1.06 basis points with persistence parameter rho = 0.940, yielding a half-life of 11.2 months. The impulse response peaks around the 12-month horizon, indicating slow-moving amplification. Cross-sectionally, a simple D10-D1 portfolio earns 4.0 basis points per month with Sharpe ratios of 0.18-0.85, consistent with tradable exposure to the sentiment factor. Three regularities emerge: (i) positive sentiment innovations transmit more strongly than negative shocks (amplification asymmetry); (ii) effects are concentrated in retail-tilted and non-optionable stocks (clientele heterogeneity); and (iii) responses are state-dependent across volatility regimes - larger on impact in high-VIX months but more persistent in low-VIX months. Baseline time-series fits are parsimonious (R2 ~ 0.001; 420 monthly observations), yet the calibrated dynamics reconcile modest impact estimates with sizable long-short payoffs. Consistent with Miller (1977), a one standard deviation sentiment shock has 1.72-8.69 basis points larger effects in low-breadth stocks across horizons of 1-12 months, is robust to institutional flows, and exhibits volatility state dependence - larger on impact but less persistent in high-VIX months, smaller on impact but more persistent in low-VIX months. |
| title | Sentiment Feedback in Equity Markets: Asymmetries, Retail Heterogeneity, and Structural Calibration |
| topic | Trading and Market Microstructure |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.11970 |