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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Arratia, Argimiro, Cabaña, Alejandra, Mordecki, Ernesto, Rovira-Parra, Gerard
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.12185
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Table of Contents:
  • Model selection in non-linear models often prioritizes performance metrics over statistical tests, limiting the ability to account for sampling variability. We propose the use of a statistical test to assess the equality of variances in forecasting errors. The test builds upon the classic Morgan-Pitman approach, incorporating enhancements to ensure robustness against data with heavy-tailed distributions or outliers with high variance, plus a strategy to make residuals from machine learning models statistically independent. Through a series of simulations and real-world data applications, we demonstrate the test's effectiveness and practical utility, offering a reliable tool for model evaluation and selection in diverse contexts.