Imputation-Powered Inference
Fuente:
arXiv
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| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866915499095359488 |
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| author | Zhao, Sarah Candès, Emmanuel |
| author_facet | Zhao, Sarah Candès, Emmanuel |
| contents | Modern multi-modal and multi-site data frequently suffer from blockwise missingness, where subsets of features are missing for groups of individuals, creating complex patterns that challenge standard inference methods. Existing approaches have critical limitations: complete-case analysis discards informative data and is potentially biased; doubly robust estimators for non-monotone missingness-where the missingness patterns are not nested subsets of one another-can be theoretically efficient but lack closed-form solutions and often fail to scale; and blackbox imputation can leverage partially observed data to improve efficiency but provides no inferential guarantees when misspecified. To address the limitations of these existing methods, we propose imputation-powered inference (IPI), a model-lean framework that combines the flexibility of blackbox imputation with bias correction using fully observed data, drawing on ideas from prediction-powered inference and semiparametric inference. IPI enables valid and efficient M-estimation under missing completely at random (MCAR) blockwise missingness and improves subpopulation inference under a weaker assumption we formalize as first-moment MCAR, for which we also provide practical diagnostics. Simulation studies and a clinical application demonstrate that IPI may substantially improve subpopulation efficiency relative to complete-case analysis, while maintaining statistical validity in settings where both doubly robust estimators and naive imputation fail to achieve nominal coverage. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_13778 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Imputation-Powered Inference Zhao, Sarah Candès, Emmanuel Methodology Machine Learning Modern multi-modal and multi-site data frequently suffer from blockwise missingness, where subsets of features are missing for groups of individuals, creating complex patterns that challenge standard inference methods. Existing approaches have critical limitations: complete-case analysis discards informative data and is potentially biased; doubly robust estimators for non-monotone missingness-where the missingness patterns are not nested subsets of one another-can be theoretically efficient but lack closed-form solutions and often fail to scale; and blackbox imputation can leverage partially observed data to improve efficiency but provides no inferential guarantees when misspecified. To address the limitations of these existing methods, we propose imputation-powered inference (IPI), a model-lean framework that combines the flexibility of blackbox imputation with bias correction using fully observed data, drawing on ideas from prediction-powered inference and semiparametric inference. IPI enables valid and efficient M-estimation under missing completely at random (MCAR) blockwise missingness and improves subpopulation inference under a weaker assumption we formalize as first-moment MCAR, for which we also provide practical diagnostics. Simulation studies and a clinical application demonstrate that IPI may substantially improve subpopulation efficiency relative to complete-case analysis, while maintaining statistical validity in settings where both doubly robust estimators and naive imputation fail to achieve nominal coverage. |
| title | Imputation-Powered Inference |
| topic | Methodology Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.13778 |