Copycat vs. Original: Multi-modal Pretraining and Variable Importance in Box-office Prediction

Fuente: arXiv
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Autori principali: Chao, Qin, Kim, Eunsoo, Li, Boyang
Natura: Preprint
Pubblicazione: 2025
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author Chao, Qin
Kim, Eunsoo
Li, Boyang
author_facet Chao, Qin
Kim, Eunsoo
Li, Boyang
contents The movie industry is associated with an elevated level of risk, which necessitates the use of automated tools to predict box-office revenue and facilitate human decision-making. In this study, we build a sophisticated multimodal neural network that predicts box offices by grounding crowdsourced descriptive keywords of each movie in the visual information of the movie posters, thereby enhancing the learned keyword representations, resulting in a substantial reduction of 14.5% in box-office prediction error. The advanced revenue prediction model enables the analysis of the commercial viability of "copycat movies," or movies with substantial similarity to successful movies released recently. We do so by computing the influence of copycat features in box-office prediction. We find a positive relationship between copycat status and movie revenue. However, this effect diminishes when the number of similar movies and the similarity of their content increase. Overall, our work develops sophisticated deep learning tools for studying the movie industry and provides valuable business insight.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_15277
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Copycat vs. Original: Multi-modal Pretraining and Variable Importance in Box-office Prediction
Chao, Qin
Kim, Eunsoo
Li, Boyang
Multimedia
Machine Learning
The movie industry is associated with an elevated level of risk, which necessitates the use of automated tools to predict box-office revenue and facilitate human decision-making. In this study, we build a sophisticated multimodal neural network that predicts box offices by grounding crowdsourced descriptive keywords of each movie in the visual information of the movie posters, thereby enhancing the learned keyword representations, resulting in a substantial reduction of 14.5% in box-office prediction error. The advanced revenue prediction model enables the analysis of the commercial viability of "copycat movies," or movies with substantial similarity to successful movies released recently. We do so by computing the influence of copycat features in box-office prediction. We find a positive relationship between copycat status and movie revenue. However, this effect diminishes when the number of similar movies and the similarity of their content increase. Overall, our work develops sophisticated deep learning tools for studying the movie industry and provides valuable business insight.
title Copycat vs. Original: Multi-modal Pretraining and Variable Importance in Box-office Prediction
topic Multimedia
Machine Learning
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.15277