Incremental Multistep Forecasting of Battery Degradation Using Pseudo Targets
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| author | Rico, Jonathan Adam Raghavan, Nagarajan Jayavelu, Senthilnath |
| author_facet | Rico, Jonathan Adam Raghavan, Nagarajan Jayavelu, Senthilnath |
| contents | Data-driven models accurately perform early battery prognosis to prevent equipment failure and further safety hazards. Most existing machine learning (ML) models work in offline mode which must consider their retraining post-deployment every time new data distribution is encountered. Hence, there is a need for an online ML approach where the model can adapt to varying distributions. However, existing online incremental multistep forecasts are a great challenge as there is no way to correct the model of its forecasts at the current instance. Also, these methods need to wait for a considerable amount of time to acquire enough streaming data before retraining. In this study, we propose iFSNet (incremental Fast and Slow learning Network) which is a modified version of FSNet for a single-pass mode (sample-by-sample) to achieve multistep forecasting using pseudo targets. It uses a simple linear regressor of the input sequence to extrapolate pseudo future samples (pseudo targets) and calculate the loss from the rest of the forecast and keep updating the model. The model benefits from the associative memory and adaptive structure mechanisms of FSNet, at the same time the model incrementally improves by using pseudo targets. The proposed model achieved 0.00197 RMSE and 0.00154 MAE on datasets with smooth degradation trajectories while it achieved 0.01588 RMSE and 0.01234 MAE on datasets having irregular degradation trajectories with capacity regeneration spikes. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_15740 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Incremental Multistep Forecasting of Battery Degradation Using Pseudo Targets Rico, Jonathan Adam Raghavan, Nagarajan Jayavelu, Senthilnath Machine Learning Data-driven models accurately perform early battery prognosis to prevent equipment failure and further safety hazards. Most existing machine learning (ML) models work in offline mode which must consider their retraining post-deployment every time new data distribution is encountered. Hence, there is a need for an online ML approach where the model can adapt to varying distributions. However, existing online incremental multistep forecasts are a great challenge as there is no way to correct the model of its forecasts at the current instance. Also, these methods need to wait for a considerable amount of time to acquire enough streaming data before retraining. In this study, we propose iFSNet (incremental Fast and Slow learning Network) which is a modified version of FSNet for a single-pass mode (sample-by-sample) to achieve multistep forecasting using pseudo targets. It uses a simple linear regressor of the input sequence to extrapolate pseudo future samples (pseudo targets) and calculate the loss from the rest of the forecast and keep updating the model. The model benefits from the associative memory and adaptive structure mechanisms of FSNet, at the same time the model incrementally improves by using pseudo targets. The proposed model achieved 0.00197 RMSE and 0.00154 MAE on datasets with smooth degradation trajectories while it achieved 0.01588 RMSE and 0.01234 MAE on datasets having irregular degradation trajectories with capacity regeneration spikes. |
| title | Incremental Multistep Forecasting of Battery Degradation Using Pseudo Targets |
| topic | Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.15740 |