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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.17087 |
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| _version_ | 1866909798692290560 |
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| author | Kruus, Nicholas Thakur, Madhavendra Khoja, Adam Nagel, Leonhard Nicholson, Maximilian Sharma, Abeer Hausenloy, Jason KoTafoya, Alberto Mukhanova, Aliya Katila-Miikkulainen, Alli Chandran, Harish Zhang, Ivan Chen, Jessie Raj, Joel Nguyen, Jord Hao, Lai Hsien Jayasundara, Neja Sen, Soham Zhang, Sophie Tamaklo, Ashley Dora Kokui Thakur, Bhavya Close, Henry Lee, Janghee Sefton, Nina Thakur, Raghavendra Munagala, Shiv Kim, Yeeun |
| author_facet | Kruus, Nicholas Thakur, Madhavendra Khoja, Adam Nagel, Leonhard Nicholson, Maximilian Sharma, Abeer Hausenloy, Jason KoTafoya, Alberto Mukhanova, Aliya Katila-Miikkulainen, Alli Chandran, Harish Zhang, Ivan Chen, Jessie Raj, Joel Nguyen, Jord Hao, Lai Hsien Jayasundara, Neja Sen, Soham Zhang, Sophie Tamaklo, Ashley Dora Kokui Thakur, Bhavya Close, Henry Lee, Janghee Sefton, Nina Thakur, Raghavendra Munagala, Shiv Kim, Yeeun |
| contents | Military and economic strategic competitiveness between nation-states will increasingly be defined by the capability and cost of their frontier artificial intelligence models. Among the first areas of geopolitical advantage granted by such systems will be in automating military intelligence. Much discussion has been devoted to AI systems enabling new military modalities, such as lethal autonomous weapons, or making strategic decisions. However, the ability of a country of "CIA analysts in a data-center" to synthesize diverse data at scale, and its implications, have been underexplored. Multimodal foundation models appear on track to automate strategic analysis previously done by humans. They will be able to fuse today's abundant satellite imagery, phone-location traces, social media records, and written documents into a single queryable system. We conduct a preliminary uplift study to empirically evaluate these capabilities, then propose a taxonomy of the kinds of ground truth questions these systems will answer, present a high-level model of the determinants of this system's AI capabilities, and provide recommendations for nation-states to remain strategically competitive within the new paradigm of automated intelligence. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_17087 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Governing Automated Strategic Intelligence Kruus, Nicholas Thakur, Madhavendra Khoja, Adam Nagel, Leonhard Nicholson, Maximilian Sharma, Abeer Hausenloy, Jason KoTafoya, Alberto Mukhanova, Aliya Katila-Miikkulainen, Alli Chandran, Harish Zhang, Ivan Chen, Jessie Raj, Joel Nguyen, Jord Hao, Lai Hsien Jayasundara, Neja Sen, Soham Zhang, Sophie Tamaklo, Ashley Dora Kokui Thakur, Bhavya Close, Henry Lee, Janghee Sefton, Nina Thakur, Raghavendra Munagala, Shiv Kim, Yeeun Artificial Intelligence Military and economic strategic competitiveness between nation-states will increasingly be defined by the capability and cost of their frontier artificial intelligence models. Among the first areas of geopolitical advantage granted by such systems will be in automating military intelligence. Much discussion has been devoted to AI systems enabling new military modalities, such as lethal autonomous weapons, or making strategic decisions. However, the ability of a country of "CIA analysts in a data-center" to synthesize diverse data at scale, and its implications, have been underexplored. Multimodal foundation models appear on track to automate strategic analysis previously done by humans. They will be able to fuse today's abundant satellite imagery, phone-location traces, social media records, and written documents into a single queryable system. We conduct a preliminary uplift study to empirically evaluate these capabilities, then propose a taxonomy of the kinds of ground truth questions these systems will answer, present a high-level model of the determinants of this system's AI capabilities, and provide recommendations for nation-states to remain strategically competitive within the new paradigm of automated intelligence. |
| title | Governing Automated Strategic Intelligence |
| topic | Artificial Intelligence |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.17087 |