Developing a Dynamic Mobility Model for Backcasting Applications: A Case Study with Shared Autonomous Vehicles
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866912602261553152 |
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| author | Héraud, Théotime Lakshmanan, Vinith Sciarretta, Antonio |
| author_facet | Héraud, Théotime Lakshmanan, Vinith Sciarretta, Antonio |
| contents | This study proposes the application of a backcasting approach to a mobility model with the aim of defining an optimal decarbonization roadmap. The selected decision variable is the introduction of a fleet of shared autonomous vehicles. The mobility model developed is composed of six interconnected sub-models. After presenting each of these models in detail, a method is introduced to analyze the direct and indirect effects of the measure, and a necessary condition for the occurrence of an undesirable effect is identified. Simulations in both forecasting and backcasting frameworks are then conducted, demonstrating the relevance of backcasting: it enables a 10% reduction in operator costs compared to forecasting results, while maintaining the same level of emissions. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_17928 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Developing a Dynamic Mobility Model for Backcasting Applications: A Case Study with Shared Autonomous Vehicles Héraud, Théotime Lakshmanan, Vinith Sciarretta, Antonio Systems and Control This study proposes the application of a backcasting approach to a mobility model with the aim of defining an optimal decarbonization roadmap. The selected decision variable is the introduction of a fleet of shared autonomous vehicles. The mobility model developed is composed of six interconnected sub-models. After presenting each of these models in detail, a method is introduced to analyze the direct and indirect effects of the measure, and a necessary condition for the occurrence of an undesirable effect is identified. Simulations in both forecasting and backcasting frameworks are then conducted, demonstrating the relevance of backcasting: it enables a 10% reduction in operator costs compared to forecasting results, while maintaining the same level of emissions. |
| title | Developing a Dynamic Mobility Model for Backcasting Applications: A Case Study with Shared Autonomous Vehicles |
| topic | Systems and Control |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.17928 |