Global Bifurcations and Pattern Formation in Target-Offender-Guardian Crime Models

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Hauptverfasser: Yerlanov, Madi, Wang, Qi, Rodriguez, Nancy
Format: Preprint
Veröffentlicht: 2025
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author Yerlanov, Madi
Wang, Qi
Rodriguez, Nancy
author_facet Yerlanov, Madi
Wang, Qi
Rodriguez, Nancy
contents We study a reaction-advection-diffusion model of a target-offender-guardian system designed to capture interactions between urban crime and policing. Using Crandall-Rabinowitz bifurcation theory and spectral analysis, we establish rigorous conditions for both steady-state and Hopf bifurcations. These results identify critical thresholds of policing intensity at which spatially uniform equilibria lose stability, leading either to persistent heterogeneous hotspots or oscillatory crime-policing cycles. From a criminological perspective, such thresholds represent tipping points in guardian mobility: once crossed, they can lock neighborhoods into stable clusters of criminal activity or trigger recurrent waves of hotspot formation. Numerical simulations complement the theory, exhibiting stationary patterns, periodic oscillations, and chaotic dynamics. By explicitly incorporating law enforcement as a third interacting component, our framework extends classical two-equation models. It offers new tools for analyzing nonlinear interactions, bifurcations, and pattern formation in multi-agent social systems.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_18146
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Global Bifurcations and Pattern Formation in Target-Offender-Guardian Crime Models
Yerlanov, Madi
Wang, Qi
Rodriguez, Nancy
Pattern Formation and Solitons
Dynamical Systems
35B36 (Primary), 70K50, 91D99 (Secondary)
We study a reaction-advection-diffusion model of a target-offender-guardian system designed to capture interactions between urban crime and policing. Using Crandall-Rabinowitz bifurcation theory and spectral analysis, we establish rigorous conditions for both steady-state and Hopf bifurcations. These results identify critical thresholds of policing intensity at which spatially uniform equilibria lose stability, leading either to persistent heterogeneous hotspots or oscillatory crime-policing cycles. From a criminological perspective, such thresholds represent tipping points in guardian mobility: once crossed, they can lock neighborhoods into stable clusters of criminal activity or trigger recurrent waves of hotspot formation. Numerical simulations complement the theory, exhibiting stationary patterns, periodic oscillations, and chaotic dynamics. By explicitly incorporating law enforcement as a third interacting component, our framework extends classical two-equation models. It offers new tools for analyzing nonlinear interactions, bifurcations, and pattern formation in multi-agent social systems.
title Global Bifurcations and Pattern Formation in Target-Offender-Guardian Crime Models
topic Pattern Formation and Solitons
Dynamical Systems
35B36 (Primary), 70K50, 91D99 (Secondary)
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.18146