One Person, How Many Votes? Demographic Distortions in United States Elections
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| _version_ | 1866911173036736512 |
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| author | Kennedy-Shaffer, Lee |
| author_facet | Kennedy-Shaffer, Lee |
| contents | Representative democracy in the United States relies on election systems that transmit votes into representatives in three key bodies: the two chambers of the federal legislature (House of Representatives and Senate) and the Electoral College, which selects the President and Vice-President. This happens through a process of re-weighting based on geographic units (congressional districts and states) that can introduce substantial distortion. In this paper, I propose quantitative measures of this distortion that can be applied to demographic groups, using Census data, to assess and visualize these distortive effects. These include the absolute weight of votes under these systems and the excess population represented in the bodies through the distortions. Visualizing these metrics from 2000 -- 2020 shows persistent malapportionment in key demographic categories. White (non-Hispanic) residents, residents of rural areas, and owner-occupied households are overrepresented in the Senate and Electoral College; Black and Hispanic people, urban dwellers, and renter-occupied households are underrepresented. For urban residents, this underrepresentation is the equivalent of 25 million fewer residents in the Senate and nearly 5 million in the Electoral College. I discuss implications for further research on the effects of these distortions and their interactions with other features of the electoral system. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_19500 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | One Person, How Many Votes? Demographic Distortions in United States Elections Kennedy-Shaffer, Lee Applications 62 Representative democracy in the United States relies on election systems that transmit votes into representatives in three key bodies: the two chambers of the federal legislature (House of Representatives and Senate) and the Electoral College, which selects the President and Vice-President. This happens through a process of re-weighting based on geographic units (congressional districts and states) that can introduce substantial distortion. In this paper, I propose quantitative measures of this distortion that can be applied to demographic groups, using Census data, to assess and visualize these distortive effects. These include the absolute weight of votes under these systems and the excess population represented in the bodies through the distortions. Visualizing these metrics from 2000 -- 2020 shows persistent malapportionment in key demographic categories. White (non-Hispanic) residents, residents of rural areas, and owner-occupied households are overrepresented in the Senate and Electoral College; Black and Hispanic people, urban dwellers, and renter-occupied households are underrepresented. For urban residents, this underrepresentation is the equivalent of 25 million fewer residents in the Senate and nearly 5 million in the Electoral College. I discuss implications for further research on the effects of these distortions and their interactions with other features of the electoral system. |
| title | One Person, How Many Votes? Demographic Distortions in United States Elections |
| topic | Applications 62 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.19500 |