Nonparametric Bayesian Calibration of Computer Models

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Shi, Haiyi, Yang, Lei, Chi, Jiarui, Butler, Troy, Wang, Haonan, Bingham, Derek, Estep, Don
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Shi, Haiyi
Yang, Lei
Chi, Jiarui
Butler, Troy
Wang, Haonan
Bingham, Derek
Estep, Don
author_facet Shi, Haiyi
Yang, Lei
Chi, Jiarui
Butler, Troy
Wang, Haonan
Bingham, Derek
Estep, Don
contents Calibration of computer models is a key step in making inferences, predictions, and decisions for complex science and engineering systems. We formulate and analyze a nonparametric Bayesian methodology for computer model calibration. This paper presents a number of key results including; establishment of a unique nonparametric Bayesian posterior corresponding to a chosen prior with an explicit formula for the corresponding conditional density; a maximum entropy property of the posterior corresponding to the uniform prior; the almost everywhere continuity of the density of the nonparametric posterior; and a comprehensive convergence and asymptotic analysis of an estimator based on a form of importance sampling. We illustrate the problem and results using several examples, including a simple experiment.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_22597
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Nonparametric Bayesian Calibration of Computer Models
Shi, Haiyi
Yang, Lei
Chi, Jiarui
Butler, Troy
Wang, Haonan
Bingham, Derek
Estep, Don
Methodology
Statistics Theory
Computation
Primary 62G05, 65C60 Secondary 62P30, 62P35, 60D05, 60A10
Calibration of computer models is a key step in making inferences, predictions, and decisions for complex science and engineering systems. We formulate and analyze a nonparametric Bayesian methodology for computer model calibration. This paper presents a number of key results including; establishment of a unique nonparametric Bayesian posterior corresponding to a chosen prior with an explicit formula for the corresponding conditional density; a maximum entropy property of the posterior corresponding to the uniform prior; the almost everywhere continuity of the density of the nonparametric posterior; and a comprehensive convergence and asymptotic analysis of an estimator based on a form of importance sampling. We illustrate the problem and results using several examples, including a simple experiment.
title Nonparametric Bayesian Calibration of Computer Models
topic Methodology
Statistics Theory
Computation
Primary 62G05, 65C60 Secondary 62P30, 62P35, 60D05, 60A10
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.22597