Strategic Play and Home Advantage: Coaches' Tactical Impact in Serie A

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Angelini, Francesco, Castellani, Massimiliano, Rubio, Gery Andrés Díaz, Giannerini, Simone, Goracci, Greta
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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_version_ 1866914058697965568
author Angelini, Francesco
Castellani, Massimiliano
Rubio, Gery Andrés Díaz
Giannerini, Simone
Goracci, Greta
author_facet Angelini, Francesco
Castellani, Massimiliano
Rubio, Gery Andrés Díaz
Giannerini, Simone
Goracci, Greta
contents We analyze how coaching strategies affect goal difference and home win probabilities using hand-coded Serie A match commentary (2011/12--2013/14). Our dataset captures in-game dynamics, referee actions, and team behavior. Applying generalized linear, logit, and proportional-odds models with robust and bootstrap standard errors, we uncover stable effects across model averaging. Aggressive opening tactics consistently boost performance, while technical actions like crosses and goal-kicks show distinct patterns. Home advantage remains significant after full control. Our approach reveals the economic logic of real-time coaching, offering a novel, data-driven method to study decision-making under uncertainty in competitive environments.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_22683
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Strategic Play and Home Advantage: Coaches' Tactical Impact in Serie A
Angelini, Francesco
Castellani, Massimiliano
Rubio, Gery Andrés Díaz
Giannerini, Simone
Goracci, Greta
Applications
Methodology
62F07 (Primary), 62J12, 62F40 (Secondary)
G.3; J.4
We analyze how coaching strategies affect goal difference and home win probabilities using hand-coded Serie A match commentary (2011/12--2013/14). Our dataset captures in-game dynamics, referee actions, and team behavior. Applying generalized linear, logit, and proportional-odds models with robust and bootstrap standard errors, we uncover stable effects across model averaging. Aggressive opening tactics consistently boost performance, while technical actions like crosses and goal-kicks show distinct patterns. Home advantage remains significant after full control. Our approach reveals the economic logic of real-time coaching, offering a novel, data-driven method to study decision-making under uncertainty in competitive environments.
title Strategic Play and Home Advantage: Coaches' Tactical Impact in Serie A
topic Applications
Methodology
62F07 (Primary), 62J12, 62F40 (Secondary)
G.3; J.4
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.22683