Strategic Play and Home Advantage: Coaches' Tactical Impact in Serie A
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866914058697965568 |
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| author | Angelini, Francesco Castellani, Massimiliano Rubio, Gery Andrés Díaz Giannerini, Simone Goracci, Greta |
| author_facet | Angelini, Francesco Castellani, Massimiliano Rubio, Gery Andrés Díaz Giannerini, Simone Goracci, Greta |
| contents | We analyze how coaching strategies affect goal difference and home win probabilities using hand-coded Serie A match commentary (2011/12--2013/14). Our dataset captures in-game dynamics, referee actions, and team behavior. Applying generalized linear, logit, and proportional-odds models with robust and bootstrap standard errors, we uncover stable effects across model averaging. Aggressive opening tactics consistently boost performance, while technical actions like crosses and goal-kicks show distinct patterns. Home advantage remains significant after full control. Our approach reveals the economic logic of real-time coaching, offering a novel, data-driven method to study decision-making under uncertainty in competitive environments. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_22683 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Strategic Play and Home Advantage: Coaches' Tactical Impact in Serie A Angelini, Francesco Castellani, Massimiliano Rubio, Gery Andrés Díaz Giannerini, Simone Goracci, Greta Applications Methodology 62F07 (Primary), 62J12, 62F40 (Secondary) G.3; J.4 We analyze how coaching strategies affect goal difference and home win probabilities using hand-coded Serie A match commentary (2011/12--2013/14). Our dataset captures in-game dynamics, referee actions, and team behavior. Applying generalized linear, logit, and proportional-odds models with robust and bootstrap standard errors, we uncover stable effects across model averaging. Aggressive opening tactics consistently boost performance, while technical actions like crosses and goal-kicks show distinct patterns. Home advantage remains significant after full control. Our approach reveals the economic logic of real-time coaching, offering a novel, data-driven method to study decision-making under uncertainty in competitive environments. |
| title | Strategic Play and Home Advantage: Coaches' Tactical Impact in Serie A |
| topic | Applications Methodology 62F07 (Primary), 62J12, 62F40 (Secondary) G.3; J.4 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.22683 |