STCast: Adaptive Boundary Alignment for Global and Regional Weather Forecasting
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| _version_ | 1866915943998816256 |
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| author | Chen, Hao Han, Tao Zhang, Jie Guo, Song Bai, Lei |
| author_facet | Chen, Hao Han, Tao Zhang, Jie Guo, Song Bai, Lei |
| contents | To gain finer regional forecasts, many works have explored the regional integration from the global atmosphere, e.g., by solving boundary equations in physics-based methods or cropping regions from global forecasts in data-driven methods. However, the effectiveness of these methods is often constrained by static and imprecise regional boundaries, resulting in poor generalization ability. To address this issue, we propose Spatial-Temporal Weather Forecasting (STCast), a novel AI-driven framework for adaptive regional boundary optimization and dynamic monthly forecast allocation. Specifically, our approach employs a Spatial-Aligned Attention (SAA) mechanism, which aligns global and regional spatial distributions to initialize boundaries and adaptively refines them based on attention-derived alignment patterns. Furthermore, we design a Temporal Mixture-of-Experts (TMoE) module, where atmospheric variables from distinct months are dynamically routed to specialized experts using a discrete Gaussian distribution, enhancing the model's ability to capture temporal patterns. Beyond global and regional forecasting, we evaluate our STCast on extreme event prediction and ensemble forecasting. Experimental results demonstrate consistent superiority over state-of-the-art methods across all four tasks. Code: https://github.com/chenhao-zju/STCast |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_25210 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | STCast: Adaptive Boundary Alignment for Global and Regional Weather Forecasting Chen, Hao Han, Tao Zhang, Jie Guo, Song Bai, Lei Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics To gain finer regional forecasts, many works have explored the regional integration from the global atmosphere, e.g., by solving boundary equations in physics-based methods or cropping regions from global forecasts in data-driven methods. However, the effectiveness of these methods is often constrained by static and imprecise regional boundaries, resulting in poor generalization ability. To address this issue, we propose Spatial-Temporal Weather Forecasting (STCast), a novel AI-driven framework for adaptive regional boundary optimization and dynamic monthly forecast allocation. Specifically, our approach employs a Spatial-Aligned Attention (SAA) mechanism, which aligns global and regional spatial distributions to initialize boundaries and adaptively refines them based on attention-derived alignment patterns. Furthermore, we design a Temporal Mixture-of-Experts (TMoE) module, where atmospheric variables from distinct months are dynamically routed to specialized experts using a discrete Gaussian distribution, enhancing the model's ability to capture temporal patterns. Beyond global and regional forecasting, we evaluate our STCast on extreme event prediction and ensemble forecasting. Experimental results demonstrate consistent superiority over state-of-the-art methods across all four tasks. Code: https://github.com/chenhao-zju/STCast |
| title | STCast: Adaptive Boundary Alignment for Global and Regional Weather Forecasting |
| topic | Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.25210 |