Conservative Decisions with Risk Scores

Fuente: arXiv
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Autores principales: Wei, Yishu, Lee, Wen-Yee, Quaye, George Ekow, Su, Xiaogang
Formato: Preprint
Publicado: 2025
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author Wei, Yishu
Lee, Wen-Yee
Quaye, George Ekow
Su, Xiaogang
author_facet Wei, Yishu
Lee, Wen-Yee
Quaye, George Ekow
Su, Xiaogang
contents In binary classification applications, conservative decision-making that allows for abstention can be advantageous. To this end, we introduce a novel approach that determines the optimal cutoff interval for risk scores, which can be directly available or derived from fitted models. Within this interval, the algorithm refrains from making decisions, while outside the interval, classification accuracy is maximized. Our approach is inspired by support vector machines (SVM), but differs in that it minimizes the classification margin rather than maximizing it. We provide the theoretical optimal solution to this problem, which holds important practical implications. Our proposed method not only supports conservative decision-making but also inherently results in a risk-coverage curve. Together with the area under the curve (AUC), this curve can serve as a comprehensive performance metric for evaluating and comparing classifiers, akin to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. To investigate and illustrate our approach, we conduct both simulation studies and a real-world case study in the context of diagnosing prostate cancer.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_25588
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Conservative Decisions with Risk Scores
Wei, Yishu
Lee, Wen-Yee
Quaye, George Ekow
Su, Xiaogang
Machine Learning
Methodology
62H30, 62G05, 62P10
I.5.2; I.2.6
In binary classification applications, conservative decision-making that allows for abstention can be advantageous. To this end, we introduce a novel approach that determines the optimal cutoff interval for risk scores, which can be directly available or derived from fitted models. Within this interval, the algorithm refrains from making decisions, while outside the interval, classification accuracy is maximized. Our approach is inspired by support vector machines (SVM), but differs in that it minimizes the classification margin rather than maximizing it. We provide the theoretical optimal solution to this problem, which holds important practical implications. Our proposed method not only supports conservative decision-making but also inherently results in a risk-coverage curve. Together with the area under the curve (AUC), this curve can serve as a comprehensive performance metric for evaluating and comparing classifiers, akin to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. To investigate and illustrate our approach, we conduct both simulation studies and a real-world case study in the context of diagnosing prostate cancer.
title Conservative Decisions with Risk Scores
topic Machine Learning
Methodology
62H30, 62G05, 62P10
I.5.2; I.2.6
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.25588