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| Natura: | Preprint |
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2025
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| Accesso online: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.25914 |
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| _version_ | 1866909040764780544 |
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| author | Lu, Yihang Meng, Xianwei Chen, Enhong |
| author_facet | Lu, Yihang Meng, Xianwei Chen, Enhong |
| contents | Neural Forecasters (NFs) have become a cornerstone of Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF). However, recent progress has been hampered by an overemphasis on architectural complexity at the expense of fundamental forecasting structures. In this work, we revisit principled designs of LTSF. We begin by formulating a Variance Reduction Hypothesis (VRH), positing that generating and combining multiple forecasts is essential to reducing the inherent uncertainty of NFs. Guided by this, we propose Boosted Direct Output (BDO), a streamlined paradigm that synergistically hybridizes the causal structure of Auto-Regressive (AR) with the stability of Direct Output (DO), while implicitly realizing the principle of forecast combination within a single network. Furthermore, we mitigate a critical validation-test generalization gap by employing parameter smoothing to stabilize optimization. Extensive experiments demonstrate that these trivial yet principled improvements enable a direct temporal MLP to outperform recent, complex state-of-the-art models in nearly all benchmarks, without relying on intricate inductive biases. Finally, we empirically verify our hypothesis, establishing a dynamic performance bound that highlights promising directions for future research. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/Luoauoa/ReNF. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_25914 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | ReNF: Rethinking the Design of Neural Long-Term Time Series Forecasters Lu, Yihang Meng, Xianwei Chen, Enhong Machine Learning Neural Forecasters (NFs) have become a cornerstone of Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF). However, recent progress has been hampered by an overemphasis on architectural complexity at the expense of fundamental forecasting structures. In this work, we revisit principled designs of LTSF. We begin by formulating a Variance Reduction Hypothesis (VRH), positing that generating and combining multiple forecasts is essential to reducing the inherent uncertainty of NFs. Guided by this, we propose Boosted Direct Output (BDO), a streamlined paradigm that synergistically hybridizes the causal structure of Auto-Regressive (AR) with the stability of Direct Output (DO), while implicitly realizing the principle of forecast combination within a single network. Furthermore, we mitigate a critical validation-test generalization gap by employing parameter smoothing to stabilize optimization. Extensive experiments demonstrate that these trivial yet principled improvements enable a direct temporal MLP to outperform recent, complex state-of-the-art models in nearly all benchmarks, without relying on intricate inductive biases. Finally, we empirically verify our hypothesis, establishing a dynamic performance bound that highlights promising directions for future research. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/Luoauoa/ReNF. |
| title | ReNF: Rethinking the Design of Neural Long-Term Time Series Forecasters |
| topic | Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.25914 |