Bayesian Re-Analysis of the Phylogenetic Topology of Early SARS-CoV-2 Case Sequences
Fuente:
arXiv
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| Autore principale: | |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866908990450958336 |
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| author | Weissman, Michael B. |
| author_facet | Weissman, Michael B. |
| contents | A much-cited 2022 paper by Pekar et al. claimed that Bayesian analysis of the molecular phylogeny of early SARS-CoV-2 cases indicated that it was more likely that two successful introductions to humans had occurred than that just one had. Here I show that after correcting a fundamental error in Bayesian reasoning the results in that paper give larger likelihood for a single introduction than for two. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_01484 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Bayesian Re-Analysis of the Phylogenetic Topology of Early SARS-CoV-2 Case Sequences Weissman, Michael B. Populations and Evolution Quantitative Methods A much-cited 2022 paper by Pekar et al. claimed that Bayesian analysis of the molecular phylogeny of early SARS-CoV-2 cases indicated that it was more likely that two successful introductions to humans had occurred than that just one had. Here I show that after correcting a fundamental error in Bayesian reasoning the results in that paper give larger likelihood for a single introduction than for two. |
| title | Bayesian Re-Analysis of the Phylogenetic Topology of Early SARS-CoV-2 Case Sequences |
| topic | Populations and Evolution Quantitative Methods |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484 |