BAO miscalibration cannot rescue late-time solutions to the Hubble tension
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2025
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| author | Pedrotti, Davide Escamilla, Luis A. Marra, Valerio Perivolaropoulos, Leandros Vagnozzi, Sunny |
| author_facet | Pedrotti, Davide Escamilla, Luis A. Marra, Valerio Perivolaropoulos, Leandros Vagnozzi, Sunny |
| contents | Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) measurements play a key role in ruling out post-recombination solutions to the Hubble tension. However, because the data compression leading to these measurements assumes a fiducial $Λ$CDM cosmology, their reliability in testing late-time modifications to $Λ$CDM has at times been called into question. We play devil's advocate and posit that fiducial cosmology assumptions do indeed affect BAO measurements in such a way that low-redshift acoustic angular scales (proportional to the Hubble constant $H_0$) are biased low, and test whether such a rescaling can rescue post-recombination solutions. The answer is no. Firstly, strong constraints on the shape of the $z \lesssim 2$ expansion history from unanchored Type Ia Supernovae (SNeIa) prevent large deviations from $Λ$CDM. In addition, unless $Ω_m$ is significantly lower than $0.3$, the rescaled BAO measurements would be in strong tension with geometrical information from the Cosmic Microwave Background. We demonstrate this explicitly on several dark energy (DE) models ($w$CDM, CPL DE, phenomenologically emergent DE, holographic DE, $Λ_s$CDM, and the negative cosmological constant model), finding that none can address the Hubble tension once unanchored SNeIa are included. We argue that the $Λ_s$CDM sign-switching cosmological constant model possesses interesting features which make it the least unpromising one among those tested. Our results demonstrate that possible fiducial cosmology-induced BAO biases cannot be invoked as loopholes to the Hubble tension "no-go theorem", and highlight the extremely important but so far underappreciated role of unanchored SNeIa in ruling out post-recombination solutions. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_01974 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | BAO miscalibration cannot rescue late-time solutions to the Hubble tension Pedrotti, Davide Escamilla, Luis A. Marra, Valerio Perivolaropoulos, Leandros Vagnozzi, Sunny Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology High Energy Physics - Phenomenology Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) measurements play a key role in ruling out post-recombination solutions to the Hubble tension. However, because the data compression leading to these measurements assumes a fiducial $Λ$CDM cosmology, their reliability in testing late-time modifications to $Λ$CDM has at times been called into question. We play devil's advocate and posit that fiducial cosmology assumptions do indeed affect BAO measurements in such a way that low-redshift acoustic angular scales (proportional to the Hubble constant $H_0$) are biased low, and test whether such a rescaling can rescue post-recombination solutions. The answer is no. Firstly, strong constraints on the shape of the $z \lesssim 2$ expansion history from unanchored Type Ia Supernovae (SNeIa) prevent large deviations from $Λ$CDM. In addition, unless $Ω_m$ is significantly lower than $0.3$, the rescaled BAO measurements would be in strong tension with geometrical information from the Cosmic Microwave Background. We demonstrate this explicitly on several dark energy (DE) models ($w$CDM, CPL DE, phenomenologically emergent DE, holographic DE, $Λ_s$CDM, and the negative cosmological constant model), finding that none can address the Hubble tension once unanchored SNeIa are included. We argue that the $Λ_s$CDM sign-switching cosmological constant model possesses interesting features which make it the least unpromising one among those tested. Our results demonstrate that possible fiducial cosmology-induced BAO biases cannot be invoked as loopholes to the Hubble tension "no-go theorem", and highlight the extremely important but so far underappreciated role of unanchored SNeIa in ruling out post-recombination solutions. |
| title | BAO miscalibration cannot rescue late-time solutions to the Hubble tension |
| topic | Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology High Energy Physics - Phenomenology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.01974 |