Environment-Aware Indoor LoRaWAN Path Loss: Parametric Regression Comparisons, Shadow Fading, and Calibrated Fade Margins

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Autori principali: Obiri, Nahshon Mokua, Van Laerhoven, Kristof
Natura: Preprint
Pubblicazione: 2025
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author Obiri, Nahshon Mokua
Van Laerhoven, Kristof
author_facet Obiri, Nahshon Mokua
Van Laerhoven, Kristof
contents Indoor long range wide area network (LoRaWAN) propagation is shaped by structural and time-varying environmental factors, which limit single-slope log-distance models and the standard log-normal shadowing assumption. We propose an environment-conditioned path loss framework that augments a log-distance multi-wall baseline with co-recorded environmental covariates (relative humidity, temperature, carbon dioxide, particulate matter, and barometric pressure) and receiver-reported signal-to-noise, and we validate both the mean and the residual law statistically. The approach is evaluated on a 12-month campaign in an eighth-floor office (240 m^2) using time-blocked 5-fold cross-validation and a chronological hold-out. Across parametric regressors (regularized multiple linear regression (MLR), conjugate Bayesian linear regression, and a selective quadratic MLR extension on continuous predictors), the selective polynomial mean improves out-of-sample accuracy, reducing cross-validated root mean square error from 8.23 to 7.38 dB and increasing R^2 from 0.81 to 0.84. Out-of-fold (OOF) residuals are distinctly non-Gaussian and are best summarized by a compact 3-component Gaussian mixture with a sharp core and a light, broad tail. Finally, we translate prediction error into reliability by prescribing the fade margin as the upper-tail percentile of OOF errors, attaching moving-block bootstrap uncertainty, and validating the resulting outage on a held-out set. At a 1% outage target (99% reliability), the polynomial model requires 25.73 dB versus 27.79 to 28.05 dB for linear baselines, enabling tighter indoor massive Internet of Things link budgets aligned with sixth-generation reliability targets under energy constraints.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_04346
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Environment-Aware Indoor LoRaWAN Path Loss: Parametric Regression Comparisons, Shadow Fading, and Calibrated Fade Margins
Obiri, Nahshon Mokua
Van Laerhoven, Kristof
Networking and Internet Architecture
Machine Learning
Numerical Analysis
Signal Processing
Indoor long range wide area network (LoRaWAN) propagation is shaped by structural and time-varying environmental factors, which limit single-slope log-distance models and the standard log-normal shadowing assumption. We propose an environment-conditioned path loss framework that augments a log-distance multi-wall baseline with co-recorded environmental covariates (relative humidity, temperature, carbon dioxide, particulate matter, and barometric pressure) and receiver-reported signal-to-noise, and we validate both the mean and the residual law statistically. The approach is evaluated on a 12-month campaign in an eighth-floor office (240 m^2) using time-blocked 5-fold cross-validation and a chronological hold-out. Across parametric regressors (regularized multiple linear regression (MLR), conjugate Bayesian linear regression, and a selective quadratic MLR extension on continuous predictors), the selective polynomial mean improves out-of-sample accuracy, reducing cross-validated root mean square error from 8.23 to 7.38 dB and increasing R^2 from 0.81 to 0.84. Out-of-fold (OOF) residuals are distinctly non-Gaussian and are best summarized by a compact 3-component Gaussian mixture with a sharp core and a light, broad tail. Finally, we translate prediction error into reliability by prescribing the fade margin as the upper-tail percentile of OOF errors, attaching moving-block bootstrap uncertainty, and validating the resulting outage on a held-out set. At a 1% outage target (99% reliability), the polynomial model requires 25.73 dB versus 27.79 to 28.05 dB for linear baselines, enabling tighter indoor massive Internet of Things link budgets aligned with sixth-generation reliability targets under energy constraints.
title Environment-Aware Indoor LoRaWAN Path Loss: Parametric Regression Comparisons, Shadow Fading, and Calibrated Fade Margins
topic Networking and Internet Architecture
Machine Learning
Numerical Analysis
Signal Processing
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.04346