SSM-CGM: Interpretable State-Space Forecasting Model of Continuous Glucose Monitoring for Personalized Diabetes Management

Fuente: arXiv
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Autores principales: Isaac, Shakson, Collin, Yentl, Patel, Chirag
Formato: Preprint
Publicado: 2025
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author Isaac, Shakson
Collin, Yentl
Patel, Chirag
author_facet Isaac, Shakson
Collin, Yentl
Patel, Chirag
contents Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) generates dense data streams critical for diabetes management, but most used forecasting models lack interpretability for clinical use. We present SSM-CGM, a Mamba-based neural state-space forecasting model that integrates CGM and wearable activity signals from the AI-READI cohort. SSM-CGM improves short-term accuracy over a Temporal Fusion Transformer baseline, adds interpretability through variable selection and temporal attribution, and enables counterfactual forecasts simulating how planned changes in physiological signals (e.g., heart rate, respiration) affect near-term glucose. Together, these features make SSM-CGM an interpretable, physiologically grounded framework for personalized diabetes management.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_04386
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle SSM-CGM: Interpretable State-Space Forecasting Model of Continuous Glucose Monitoring for Personalized Diabetes Management
Isaac, Shakson
Collin, Yentl
Patel, Chirag
Machine Learning
Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) generates dense data streams critical for diabetes management, but most used forecasting models lack interpretability for clinical use. We present SSM-CGM, a Mamba-based neural state-space forecasting model that integrates CGM and wearable activity signals from the AI-READI cohort. SSM-CGM improves short-term accuracy over a Temporal Fusion Transformer baseline, adds interpretability through variable selection and temporal attribution, and enables counterfactual forecasts simulating how planned changes in physiological signals (e.g., heart rate, respiration) affect near-term glucose. Together, these features make SSM-CGM an interpretable, physiologically grounded framework for personalized diabetes management.
title SSM-CGM: Interpretable State-Space Forecasting Model of Continuous Glucose Monitoring for Personalized Diabetes Management
topic Machine Learning
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.04386