Benchmarking atmospheric circulation variability in an AI emulator, ACE2, and a hybrid model, NeuralGCM

Fuente: arXiv
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Autori principali: Baxter, Ian, Pahlavan, Hamid, Hassanzadeh, Pedram, Rucker, Katharine, Shaw, Tiffany
Natura: Preprint
Pubblicazione: 2025
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author Baxter, Ian
Pahlavan, Hamid
Hassanzadeh, Pedram
Rucker, Katharine
Shaw, Tiffany
author_facet Baxter, Ian
Pahlavan, Hamid
Hassanzadeh, Pedram
Rucker, Katharine
Shaw, Tiffany
contents Physics-based atmosphere-land models with prescribed sea surface temperature have notable successes but also biases in their ability to represent atmospheric variability compared to observations. Recently, AI emulators and hybrid models have emerged with the potential to overcome these biases, but still require systematic evaluation against metrics grounded in fundamental atmospheric dynamics. Here, we evaluate the representation of four atmospheric variability benchmarking metrics in a fully data-driven AI emulator (ACE2-ERA5) and hybrid model (NeuralGCM). The hybrid model and emulator can capture the spectra of large-scale tropical waves and extratropical eddy-mean flow interactions, including critical levels. However, both struggle to capture the timescales associated with quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO, $\sim 28$ months) and Southern annular mode propagation ($\sim 150$ days). These dynamical metrics serve as an initial benchmarking tool to inform AI model development and understand their limitations, which may be essential for out-of-distribution applications (e.g., extrapolating to unseen climates).
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_04466
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Benchmarking atmospheric circulation variability in an AI emulator, ACE2, and a hybrid model, NeuralGCM
Baxter, Ian
Pahlavan, Hamid
Hassanzadeh, Pedram
Rucker, Katharine
Shaw, Tiffany
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Machine Learning
Physics-based atmosphere-land models with prescribed sea surface temperature have notable successes but also biases in their ability to represent atmospheric variability compared to observations. Recently, AI emulators and hybrid models have emerged with the potential to overcome these biases, but still require systematic evaluation against metrics grounded in fundamental atmospheric dynamics. Here, we evaluate the representation of four atmospheric variability benchmarking metrics in a fully data-driven AI emulator (ACE2-ERA5) and hybrid model (NeuralGCM). The hybrid model and emulator can capture the spectra of large-scale tropical waves and extratropical eddy-mean flow interactions, including critical levels. However, both struggle to capture the timescales associated with quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO, $\sim 28$ months) and Southern annular mode propagation ($\sim 150$ days). These dynamical metrics serve as an initial benchmarking tool to inform AI model development and understand their limitations, which may be essential for out-of-distribution applications (e.g., extrapolating to unseen climates).
title Benchmarking atmospheric circulation variability in an AI emulator, ACE2, and a hybrid model, NeuralGCM
topic Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Machine Learning
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.04466