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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| Online-Zugang: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.05229 |
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| _version_ | 1866909913159041024 |
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| author | Winn, Joshua N. Stefánsson, Guðmundur |
| author_facet | Winn, Joshua N. Stefánsson, Guðmundur |
| contents | The fate of hot Jupiters is thought to be engulfment by their host stars, the outcome of tidal orbital decay. Transit timing has revealed a few systems with apparently shrinking orbital periods, but such signals can be mimicked by light travel-time effects (LTTE) of a distant companion. By combining transit timings with precise radial-velocity data, including new data, we reassessed three reported cases of orbital decay: WASP-4, WASP-12, and Kepler-1658. For WASP-4, the period change is best explained by LTTE due to an ~7 Jupiter-mass companion at ~8 AU, with no need to invoke orbital decay. For WASP-12, in contrast, the data firmly exclude LTTE and confirm genuine orbital decay. For Kepler-1658, spectroscopic and photometric anomalies reveal the "planet" to be an eclipsing K/M binary bound to the F-type primary, with LTTE explaining the observed period change. Thus, among the known hot Jupiters, only WASP-12 b currently shows compelling evidence for orbital decay. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_05229 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Orbital decay candidates reconsidered: WASP-4 b is not decaying and Kepler-1658 b is not a planet Winn, Joshua N. Stefánsson, Guðmundur Earth and Planetary Astrophysics The fate of hot Jupiters is thought to be engulfment by their host stars, the outcome of tidal orbital decay. Transit timing has revealed a few systems with apparently shrinking orbital periods, but such signals can be mimicked by light travel-time effects (LTTE) of a distant companion. By combining transit timings with precise radial-velocity data, including new data, we reassessed three reported cases of orbital decay: WASP-4, WASP-12, and Kepler-1658. For WASP-4, the period change is best explained by LTTE due to an ~7 Jupiter-mass companion at ~8 AU, with no need to invoke orbital decay. For WASP-12, in contrast, the data firmly exclude LTTE and confirm genuine orbital decay. For Kepler-1658, spectroscopic and photometric anomalies reveal the "planet" to be an eclipsing K/M binary bound to the F-type primary, with LTTE explaining the observed period change. Thus, among the known hot Jupiters, only WASP-12 b currently shows compelling evidence for orbital decay. |
| title | Orbital decay candidates reconsidered: WASP-4 b is not decaying and Kepler-1658 b is not a planet |
| topic | Earth and Planetary Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.05229 |