Representing Subgrid-Scale Cloud Effects in a Radiation Parameterization using Machine Learning: MLe-radiation v1.0

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Hafner, Katharina, Shamekh, Sara, Bertoli, Guillaume, Lauer, Axel, Pincus, Robert, Savre, Julien, Eyring, Veronika
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Hafner, Katharina
Shamekh, Sara
Bertoli, Guillaume
Lauer, Axel
Pincus, Robert
Savre, Julien
Eyring, Veronika
author_facet Hafner, Katharina
Shamekh, Sara
Bertoli, Guillaume
Lauer, Axel
Pincus, Robert
Savre, Julien
Eyring, Veronika
contents Improvements of Machine Learning (ML)-based radiation emulators remain constrained by the underlying assumptions to represent horizontal and vertical subgrid-scale cloud distributions, which continue to introduce substantial uncertainties. In this study, we introduce a method to represent the impact of subgrid-scale clouds by applying ML to learn processes from high-resolution model output with a horizontal grid spacing of 5km. In global storm resolving models, clouds begin to be explicitly resolved. Coarse-graining these high-resolution simulations to the resolution of coarser Earth System Models yields radiative heating rates that implicitly include subgrid-scale cloud effects, without assumptions about their horizontal or vertical distributions. We define the cloud radiative impact as the difference between all-sky and clear-sky radiative fluxes, and train the ML component solely on this cloud-induced contribution to heating rates. The clear-sky tendencies remain being computed with a conventional physics-based radiation scheme. This hybrid design enhances generalization, since the machine-learned part addresses only subgrid-scale cloud effects, while the clear-sky component remains responsive to changes in greenhouse gas or aerosol concentrations. Applied to coarse-grained data offline, the ML-enhanced radiation scheme reduces errors by a factor of 4-10 compared with a conventional coarse-scale radiation scheme. This shows the potential of representing subgrid-scale cloud effects in radiation schemes with ML for the next generation of Earth System Models.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_05963
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Representing Subgrid-Scale Cloud Effects in a Radiation Parameterization using Machine Learning: MLe-radiation v1.0
Hafner, Katharina
Shamekh, Sara
Bertoli, Guillaume
Lauer, Axel
Pincus, Robert
Savre, Julien
Eyring, Veronika
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Geophysics
Improvements of Machine Learning (ML)-based radiation emulators remain constrained by the underlying assumptions to represent horizontal and vertical subgrid-scale cloud distributions, which continue to introduce substantial uncertainties. In this study, we introduce a method to represent the impact of subgrid-scale clouds by applying ML to learn processes from high-resolution model output with a horizontal grid spacing of 5km. In global storm resolving models, clouds begin to be explicitly resolved. Coarse-graining these high-resolution simulations to the resolution of coarser Earth System Models yields radiative heating rates that implicitly include subgrid-scale cloud effects, without assumptions about their horizontal or vertical distributions. We define the cloud radiative impact as the difference between all-sky and clear-sky radiative fluxes, and train the ML component solely on this cloud-induced contribution to heating rates. The clear-sky tendencies remain being computed with a conventional physics-based radiation scheme. This hybrid design enhances generalization, since the machine-learned part addresses only subgrid-scale cloud effects, while the clear-sky component remains responsive to changes in greenhouse gas or aerosol concentrations. Applied to coarse-grained data offline, the ML-enhanced radiation scheme reduces errors by a factor of 4-10 compared with a conventional coarse-scale radiation scheme. This shows the potential of representing subgrid-scale cloud effects in radiation schemes with ML for the next generation of Earth System Models.
title Representing Subgrid-Scale Cloud Effects in a Radiation Parameterization using Machine Learning: MLe-radiation v1.0
topic Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Geophysics
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.05963