Climate Model Tuning with Online Synchronization-Based Parameter Estimation

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Seneca, Jordan, Bintanja, Suzanne, Selten, Frank M.
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Seneca, Jordan
Bintanja, Suzanne
Selten, Frank M.
author_facet Seneca, Jordan
Bintanja, Suzanne
Selten, Frank M.
contents In climate science, the tuning of climate models is a computationally intensive problem due to the combination of the high-dimensionality of the system state and long integration times. Supermodelling is a technique which has shown the potential for reducing climate model biases by dynamically coupling multiple models together, and training their coupling on a short timescale. Here, we introduce a new approach called \emph{adaptive supermodeling}, where the internal model parameters of the member of a supermodel are tuned. We perform three experiments. We first directly optimize the internal parameters of a climate model. We then optimize the weights between two members of a supermodel in a classical supermodel approach. For a case designed to challenge the two previous methods, we implement adaptive supermodeling, which achieves a performance similar to a perfect model.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_06180
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Climate Model Tuning with Online Synchronization-Based Parameter Estimation
Seneca, Jordan
Bintanja, Suzanne
Selten, Frank M.
Chaotic Dynamics
Machine Learning
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
In climate science, the tuning of climate models is a computationally intensive problem due to the combination of the high-dimensionality of the system state and long integration times. Supermodelling is a technique which has shown the potential for reducing climate model biases by dynamically coupling multiple models together, and training their coupling on a short timescale. Here, we introduce a new approach called \emph{adaptive supermodeling}, where the internal model parameters of the member of a supermodel are tuned. We perform three experiments. We first directly optimize the internal parameters of a climate model. We then optimize the weights between two members of a supermodel in a classical supermodel approach. For a case designed to challenge the two previous methods, we implement adaptive supermodeling, which achieves a performance similar to a perfect model.
title Climate Model Tuning with Online Synchronization-Based Parameter Estimation
topic Chaotic Dynamics
Machine Learning
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.06180