Skill of Long-Range Forecasts of Ocean Wave Spectra from the Navy ESPC Version 2 System
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866916999132610560 |
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| author | Rogers, W. E. Janiga, M. A. |
| author_facet | Rogers, W. E. Janiga, M. A. |
| contents | We report the outcome of evaluations of the skill of long-range forecasts from the ocean wave model component of the Navy's global coupled modeling system. Specifically, the model output is taken from a single member of the ensemble system, and we evaluate the skill of predicting seven model "wave height" parameters, computed from: energy in four frequency bands, energy in all bands combined, swell energy, and wind sea energy. The model is evaluated using two methods of "ground truth". The first is a new instrument for measuring wave spectra from space, Surface Waves Investigation and Monitoring (SWIM). The second is analyses from the same model. We propose a new method of band-wise bias correction of the observational dataset, using in situ wave observations, with the numerical wave model used as an intermediary. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_06484 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Skill of Long-Range Forecasts of Ocean Wave Spectra from the Navy ESPC Version 2 System Rogers, W. E. Janiga, M. A. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics We report the outcome of evaluations of the skill of long-range forecasts from the ocean wave model component of the Navy's global coupled modeling system. Specifically, the model output is taken from a single member of the ensemble system, and we evaluate the skill of predicting seven model "wave height" parameters, computed from: energy in four frequency bands, energy in all bands combined, swell energy, and wind sea energy. The model is evaluated using two methods of "ground truth". The first is a new instrument for measuring wave spectra from space, Surface Waves Investigation and Monitoring (SWIM). The second is analyses from the same model. We propose a new method of band-wise bias correction of the observational dataset, using in situ wave observations, with the numerical wave model used as an intermediary. |
| title | Skill of Long-Range Forecasts of Ocean Wave Spectra from the Navy ESPC Version 2 System |
| topic | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.06484 |