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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.09896 |
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| _version_ | 1866911533273972736 |
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| author | Stiller, Dominik Hakim, Gregory J. |
| author_facet | Stiller, Dominik Hakim, Gregory J. |
| contents | Earth's energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is a key climate system metric, but its natural variability is poorly constrained by the short observational record and large uncertainty in coupled climate models. While existing ocean heat content reconstructions offer a longer perspective, they cannot separate the contributions of shortwave and longwave radiation, obscuring the underlying processes. We extend the energy budget record into the pre-industrial period by reconstructing the top-of-atmosphere radiation and related surface variables over the last millennium (850-2000 CE) by using data assimilation to combine proxy data and dynamics from a coupled climate emulator. Validation reveals skill in the reconstructed radiation fields, especially in the tropics. Results show a familiar last-millennium cooling trend, which coincides with persistent heat loss and a reduction in upper-ocean heat content. The cooling trend differs by season and latitude, and is associated with radiative anomalies suggestive of an eastward shift in Indo-Pacific convection. Following large volcanic eruptions, ocean heat content anomalies persist for 10-20 years on average, supporting previous evidence that the cooling trend was forced by decadally-paced eruptions. The reconstruction also reveals that the current rate of energy gain is unprecedented relative to the period before 1850. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_09896 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Top-of-atmosphere radiation over the last millennium reconstructed from proxies Stiller, Dominik Hakim, Gregory J. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Earth's energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is a key climate system metric, but its natural variability is poorly constrained by the short observational record and large uncertainty in coupled climate models. While existing ocean heat content reconstructions offer a longer perspective, they cannot separate the contributions of shortwave and longwave radiation, obscuring the underlying processes. We extend the energy budget record into the pre-industrial period by reconstructing the top-of-atmosphere radiation and related surface variables over the last millennium (850-2000 CE) by using data assimilation to combine proxy data and dynamics from a coupled climate emulator. Validation reveals skill in the reconstructed radiation fields, especially in the tropics. Results show a familiar last-millennium cooling trend, which coincides with persistent heat loss and a reduction in upper-ocean heat content. The cooling trend differs by season and latitude, and is associated with radiative anomalies suggestive of an eastward shift in Indo-Pacific convection. Following large volcanic eruptions, ocean heat content anomalies persist for 10-20 years on average, supporting previous evidence that the cooling trend was forced by decadally-paced eruptions. The reconstruction also reveals that the current rate of energy gain is unprecedented relative to the period before 1850. |
| title | Top-of-atmosphere radiation over the last millennium reconstructed from proxies |
| topic | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.09896 |