BayeSN-TD: Time Delay and $H_0$ Estimation for Lensed SN H0pe
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| _version_ | 1866913021393108992 |
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| author | Grayling, M. Thorp, S. Mandel, K. S. Pascale, M. Pierel, J. D. R. Hayes, E. E. Larison, C. Agrawal, A. Narayan, G. |
| author_facet | Grayling, M. Thorp, S. Mandel, K. S. Pascale, M. Pierel, J. D. R. Hayes, E. E. Larison, C. Agrawal, A. Narayan, G. |
| contents | We present BayeSN-TD, an enhanced implementation of the probabilistic type Ia supernova (SN Ia) BayeSN SED model, designed for fitting multiply-imaged, gravitationally lensed type Ia supernovae (glSNe Ia). BayeSN-TD fits for magnifications and time-delays across multiple images while marginalising over an achromatic, Gaussian process-based treatment of microlensing, to allow for time-dependent deviations from a typical SN Ia SED caused by gravitational lensing by stars in the lensing system. BayeSN-TD is able to robustly infer time delays and produce well-calibrated uncertainties, even when applied to simulations based on a different SED model and incorporating chromatic microlensing, strongly validating its suitability for time-delay cosmography. We then apply BayeSN-TD to publicly available photometry of the glSN Ia SN H0pe, inferring time delays between images BA and BC of $ΔT_{BA}=121.9^{+9.5}_{-7.5}$ days and $ΔT_{BC}=63.2^{+3.2}_{-3.3}$ days along with absolute magnifications $β$ for each image, $β_A = 2.38^{+0.72}_{-0.54}$, $β_B=5.27^{+1.25}_{-1.02}$ and $β_C=3.93^{+1.00}_{-0.75}$. Combining our constraints on time-delays and magnifications with existing lens models of this system, we infer $H_0=69.3^{+12.6}_{-7.8}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$, consistent with previous analysis of this system; incorporating additional constraints based on spectroscopy yields $H_0=66.8^{+13.4}_{-5.4}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$. While this is not yet precise enough to draw a meaningful conclusion with regard to the `Hubble tension', upcoming analysis of SN H0pe with more accurate photometry enabled by template images, and other glSNe, will provide stronger constraints on $H_0$; BayeSN-TD will be a valuable tool for these analyses. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_11719 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | BayeSN-TD: Time Delay and $H_0$ Estimation for Lensed SN H0pe Grayling, M. Thorp, S. Mandel, K. S. Pascale, M. Pierel, J. D. R. Hayes, E. E. Larison, C. Agrawal, A. Narayan, G. Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics We present BayeSN-TD, an enhanced implementation of the probabilistic type Ia supernova (SN Ia) BayeSN SED model, designed for fitting multiply-imaged, gravitationally lensed type Ia supernovae (glSNe Ia). BayeSN-TD fits for magnifications and time-delays across multiple images while marginalising over an achromatic, Gaussian process-based treatment of microlensing, to allow for time-dependent deviations from a typical SN Ia SED caused by gravitational lensing by stars in the lensing system. BayeSN-TD is able to robustly infer time delays and produce well-calibrated uncertainties, even when applied to simulations based on a different SED model and incorporating chromatic microlensing, strongly validating its suitability for time-delay cosmography. We then apply BayeSN-TD to publicly available photometry of the glSN Ia SN H0pe, inferring time delays between images BA and BC of $ΔT_{BA}=121.9^{+9.5}_{-7.5}$ days and $ΔT_{BC}=63.2^{+3.2}_{-3.3}$ days along with absolute magnifications $β$ for each image, $β_A = 2.38^{+0.72}_{-0.54}$, $β_B=5.27^{+1.25}_{-1.02}$ and $β_C=3.93^{+1.00}_{-0.75}$. Combining our constraints on time-delays and magnifications with existing lens models of this system, we infer $H_0=69.3^{+12.6}_{-7.8}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$, consistent with previous analysis of this system; incorporating additional constraints based on spectroscopy yields $H_0=66.8^{+13.4}_{-5.4}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$. While this is not yet precise enough to draw a meaningful conclusion with regard to the `Hubble tension', upcoming analysis of SN H0pe with more accurate photometry enabled by template images, and other glSNe, will provide stronger constraints on $H_0$; BayeSN-TD will be a valuable tool for these analyses. |
| title | BayeSN-TD: Time Delay and $H_0$ Estimation for Lensed SN H0pe |
| topic | Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.11719 |