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Main Authors: Gondim, Antonio, Schultz, Leonardo, Huo, Xi, Ruan, Shigui
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.15826
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author Gondim, Antonio
Schultz, Leonardo
Huo, Xi
Ruan, Shigui
author_facet Gondim, Antonio
Schultz, Leonardo
Huo, Xi
Ruan, Shigui
contents Chikungunya virus is a mosquito-borne arbovirus with the potential to establish sustained transmission in subtropical regions like Florida, where climatic and ecological conditions support vector proliferation. In this study, we develop a Continuous Time Markov Chain model to assess the probability of long-term Chikungunya establishment in Miami-Dade County following repeated introductions of external infectious individuals. This work aims to identify seasonal windows of heightened endemic risk and evaluates the impact of vector control strategies on mitigating the likelihood of persistent transmission. These results generate insights into the dynamics of Chikungunya virus infections and inform targeted interventions to prevent its transition from minor sporadic outbreaks to endemic circulation.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_15826
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Quantifying the Risk of Long Term Chikungunya Persistence in Miami Dade County
Gondim, Antonio
Schultz, Leonardo
Huo, Xi
Ruan, Shigui
Populations and Evolution
Chikungunya virus is a mosquito-borne arbovirus with the potential to establish sustained transmission in subtropical regions like Florida, where climatic and ecological conditions support vector proliferation. In this study, we develop a Continuous Time Markov Chain model to assess the probability of long-term Chikungunya establishment in Miami-Dade County following repeated introductions of external infectious individuals. This work aims to identify seasonal windows of heightened endemic risk and evaluates the impact of vector control strategies on mitigating the likelihood of persistent transmission. These results generate insights into the dynamics of Chikungunya virus infections and inform targeted interventions to prevent its transition from minor sporadic outbreaks to endemic circulation.
title Quantifying the Risk of Long Term Chikungunya Persistence in Miami Dade County
topic Populations and Evolution
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.15826