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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.16495 |
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| _version_ | 1866914102766469120 |
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| author | Khalil, Muhammad Wang, Ke Choi, Jinho |
| author_facet | Khalil, Muhammad Wang, Ke Choi, Jinho |
| contents | We develop a probabilistic, antenna- and propagation-centric framework to quantify the effectiveness of high-power microwave (HPM) engagements against unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The model couples stochastic UAV kinematics, a beam-steering jitter-to-gain mapping, and atmospheric propagation (free-space spreading with gaseous and rain loss) to obtain closed-form statistics of the received pulse energy. From these, we derive analytically evaluable per-pulse and cumulative neutralization probabilities using log-normal closures and Gaussian--Hermite quadrature, and we provide a dwell-time expression under a standard pulse-independence assumption. Analytical predictions closely match large-scale Monte-Carlo simulations across broad parameter ranges. For a representative commercial threshold $E_{\mathrm{th}} = 10^{-2}\,\mathrm{J}$, the model predicts $\bar{P}_{\mathrm{kill}} \gtrsim 0.4$ per pulse and $P_{\mathrm{kill,tot}} > 99\%$ within about $0.1\,\mathrm{s}$ at kHz PRF; for hardened platforms with $E_{\mathrm{th}} = 10^{-1}\,\mathrm{J}$, $\bar{P}_{\mathrm{kill}} < 1\%$ and $P_{\mathrm{kill,tot}} < 20\%$ after $1\,\mathrm{s}$. A closed-form sensitivity (elasticity) analysis shows performance is dominated by slant range ($S_{\bar{R}} \approx -2$), with strong secondary dependence on aperture diameter and transmit power; pointing jitter and atmospheric variability are comparatively less influential in the evaluated regimes. The framework yields fast, accurate, and physics-faithful performance predictions and exposes clear antenna/propagation design levers for HPM system sizing and risk-aware mission planning. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_16495 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Performance Evaluation of High Power Microwave Systems Against UAVs A Probabilistic Antenna Propagation Framework with Sensitivity Analysis Khalil, Muhammad Wang, Ke Choi, Jinho Signal Processing We develop a probabilistic, antenna- and propagation-centric framework to quantify the effectiveness of high-power microwave (HPM) engagements against unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The model couples stochastic UAV kinematics, a beam-steering jitter-to-gain mapping, and atmospheric propagation (free-space spreading with gaseous and rain loss) to obtain closed-form statistics of the received pulse energy. From these, we derive analytically evaluable per-pulse and cumulative neutralization probabilities using log-normal closures and Gaussian--Hermite quadrature, and we provide a dwell-time expression under a standard pulse-independence assumption. Analytical predictions closely match large-scale Monte-Carlo simulations across broad parameter ranges. For a representative commercial threshold $E_{\mathrm{th}} = 10^{-2}\,\mathrm{J}$, the model predicts $\bar{P}_{\mathrm{kill}} \gtrsim 0.4$ per pulse and $P_{\mathrm{kill,tot}} > 99\%$ within about $0.1\,\mathrm{s}$ at kHz PRF; for hardened platforms with $E_{\mathrm{th}} = 10^{-1}\,\mathrm{J}$, $\bar{P}_{\mathrm{kill}} < 1\%$ and $P_{\mathrm{kill,tot}} < 20\%$ after $1\,\mathrm{s}$. A closed-form sensitivity (elasticity) analysis shows performance is dominated by slant range ($S_{\bar{R}} \approx -2$), with strong secondary dependence on aperture diameter and transmit power; pointing jitter and atmospheric variability are comparatively less influential in the evaluated regimes. The framework yields fast, accurate, and physics-faithful performance predictions and exposes clear antenna/propagation design levers for HPM system sizing and risk-aware mission planning. |
| title | Performance Evaluation of High Power Microwave Systems Against UAVs A Probabilistic Antenna Propagation Framework with Sensitivity Analysis |
| topic | Signal Processing |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.16495 |