Explainable Heterogeneous Anomaly Detection in Financial Networks via Adaptive Expert Routing
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866918377096740864 |
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| author | Li, Zan Fan, Rui |
| author_facet | Li, Zan Fan, Rui |
| contents | Financial anomalies arise from heterogeneous mechanisms -- price shocks, liquidity freezes, contagion cascades, and momentum reversals -- yet existing detectors produce uniform scores without revealing which mechanism is failing. This hinders targeted responses: liquidity freezes call for market-making support, whereas price shocks call for circuit breakers. Three key challenges remain: (1) static graphs cannot adapt when correlations shift across regimes; (2) uniform detectors overlook heterogeneous anomaly signatures; and (3) black-box scores provide no actionable guidance on driving mechanisms. We address these challenges with an adaptive graph learning framework that embeds interpretability architecturally rather than post hoc. The framework constructs stress-modulated graphs that adaptively interpolate between known sector and geographic relationships and data-driven correlations as market conditions evolve. Anomalies are decomposed via four mechanism-specific experts -- Price-Shock, Liquidity, Systemic-Contagion, and Momentum-Reversal -- each capturing a distinct anomaly channel documented in the financial economics literature. The resulting routing weights serve as interpretable proxies for mechanism attribution, with their relative values indicating each anomaly's primary driving mechanism. A hierarchical Market Pressure Index aggregates entity-level anomaly scores into graduated market-wide alerts. On 100 U.S. equities (2017-2024), the framework detects all six major stress events with a 3.7-day mean lead time, outperforming baselines by +33 percentage points, with AUC 0.888 and AP 0.626. Case studies on SVB (March 2023) and Japan carry-trade unwind (August 2024) demonstrate that routing weights automatically distinguish localized from systemic crises without labeled supervision. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_17088 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Explainable Heterogeneous Anomaly Detection in Financial Networks via Adaptive Expert Routing Li, Zan Fan, Rui Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science Financial anomalies arise from heterogeneous mechanisms -- price shocks, liquidity freezes, contagion cascades, and momentum reversals -- yet existing detectors produce uniform scores without revealing which mechanism is failing. This hinders targeted responses: liquidity freezes call for market-making support, whereas price shocks call for circuit breakers. Three key challenges remain: (1) static graphs cannot adapt when correlations shift across regimes; (2) uniform detectors overlook heterogeneous anomaly signatures; and (3) black-box scores provide no actionable guidance on driving mechanisms. We address these challenges with an adaptive graph learning framework that embeds interpretability architecturally rather than post hoc. The framework constructs stress-modulated graphs that adaptively interpolate between known sector and geographic relationships and data-driven correlations as market conditions evolve. Anomalies are decomposed via four mechanism-specific experts -- Price-Shock, Liquidity, Systemic-Contagion, and Momentum-Reversal -- each capturing a distinct anomaly channel documented in the financial economics literature. The resulting routing weights serve as interpretable proxies for mechanism attribution, with their relative values indicating each anomaly's primary driving mechanism. A hierarchical Market Pressure Index aggregates entity-level anomaly scores into graduated market-wide alerts. On 100 U.S. equities (2017-2024), the framework detects all six major stress events with a 3.7-day mean lead time, outperforming baselines by +33 percentage points, with AUC 0.888 and AP 0.626. Case studies on SVB (March 2023) and Japan carry-trade unwind (August 2024) demonstrate that routing weights automatically distinguish localized from systemic crises without labeled supervision. |
| title | Explainable Heterogeneous Anomaly Detection in Financial Networks via Adaptive Expert Routing |
| topic | Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.17088 |