Real-Time Stochastic Assessment of Dynamic N-1 Grid Contingencies
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , , , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866915565709295616 |
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| author | Almada, Ayrton Pagnier, Laurent Goldshtein, Igal Kazi, Saif R. Michael Chertkov |
| author_facet | Almada, Ayrton Pagnier, Laurent Goldshtein, Igal Kazi, Saif R. Michael Chertkov |
| contents | Power system operators need tools for rapid, real-time counterfactual assessments of grid security under fast-changing conditions. Traditional N-1 contingency analysis lacks dynamic evaluation, especially of frequency swings from common faults. This paper introduces a real-time dashboard framework to screen dynamic contingencies. It assumes: (a) the grid starts in a balanced state; (b) faults can occur randomly on any transmission line, temporarily de-energizing and then reconnecting it within about one second; and (c) contingencies are flagged if post-fault transients cause line flows to exceed safety thresholds. The key contributions are: (1) Overload Indicator: a system-wide metric quantifying integrated N-1 dynamic risk from a given state; (2) Scalable Fault Evaluation Algorithm: a linear-scaling method to assess dynamic fault impacts without brute-force simulations; and (3) Risk Estimation: a Cross Entropy Adaptive Importance Sampling method estimating the likelihood of low probability by high risk events, e.g. associated with potential transformer over-current. We demonstrate the framework on the Israeli transmission power grid (IG). |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_18007 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Real-Time Stochastic Assessment of Dynamic N-1 Grid Contingencies Almada, Ayrton Pagnier, Laurent Goldshtein, Igal Kazi, Saif R. Michael Chertkov Dynamical Systems Power system operators need tools for rapid, real-time counterfactual assessments of grid security under fast-changing conditions. Traditional N-1 contingency analysis lacks dynamic evaluation, especially of frequency swings from common faults. This paper introduces a real-time dashboard framework to screen dynamic contingencies. It assumes: (a) the grid starts in a balanced state; (b) faults can occur randomly on any transmission line, temporarily de-energizing and then reconnecting it within about one second; and (c) contingencies are flagged if post-fault transients cause line flows to exceed safety thresholds. The key contributions are: (1) Overload Indicator: a system-wide metric quantifying integrated N-1 dynamic risk from a given state; (2) Scalable Fault Evaluation Algorithm: a linear-scaling method to assess dynamic fault impacts without brute-force simulations; and (3) Risk Estimation: a Cross Entropy Adaptive Importance Sampling method estimating the likelihood of low probability by high risk events, e.g. associated with potential transformer over-current. We demonstrate the framework on the Israeli transmission power grid (IG). |
| title | Real-Time Stochastic Assessment of Dynamic N-1 Grid Contingencies |
| topic | Dynamical Systems |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.18007 |