Online Time Series Forecasting with Theoretical Guarantees
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866918164677263360 |
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| author | Li, Zijian Zhou, Changze Fu, Minghao Manjunath, Sanjay Feng, Fan Chen, Guangyi Hu, Yingyao Cai, Ruichu Zhang, Kun |
| author_facet | Li, Zijian Zhou, Changze Fu, Minghao Manjunath, Sanjay Feng, Fan Chen, Guangyi Hu, Yingyao Cai, Ruichu Zhang, Kun |
| contents | This paper is concerned with online time series forecasting, where unknown distribution shifts occur over time, i.e., latent variables influence the mapping from historical to future observations. To develop an automated way of online time series forecasting, we propose a Theoretical framework for Online Time-series forecasting (TOT in short) with theoretical guarantees. Specifically, we prove that supplying a forecaster with latent variables tightens the Bayes risk, the benefit endures under estimation uncertainty of latent variables and grows as the latent variables achieve a more precise identifiability. To better introduce latent variables into online forecasting algorithms, we further propose to identify latent variables with minimal adjacent observations. Based on these results, we devise a model-agnostic blueprint by employing a temporal decoder to match the distribution of observed variables and two independent noise estimators to model the causal inference of latent variables and mixing procedures of observed variables, respectively. Experiment results on synthetic data support our theoretical claims. Moreover, plug-in implementations built on several baselines yield general improvement across multiple benchmarks, highlighting the effectiveness in real-world applications. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_18281 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Online Time Series Forecasting with Theoretical Guarantees Li, Zijian Zhou, Changze Fu, Minghao Manjunath, Sanjay Feng, Fan Chen, Guangyi Hu, Yingyao Cai, Ruichu Zhang, Kun Machine Learning This paper is concerned with online time series forecasting, where unknown distribution shifts occur over time, i.e., latent variables influence the mapping from historical to future observations. To develop an automated way of online time series forecasting, we propose a Theoretical framework for Online Time-series forecasting (TOT in short) with theoretical guarantees. Specifically, we prove that supplying a forecaster with latent variables tightens the Bayes risk, the benefit endures under estimation uncertainty of latent variables and grows as the latent variables achieve a more precise identifiability. To better introduce latent variables into online forecasting algorithms, we further propose to identify latent variables with minimal adjacent observations. Based on these results, we devise a model-agnostic blueprint by employing a temporal decoder to match the distribution of observed variables and two independent noise estimators to model the causal inference of latent variables and mixing procedures of observed variables, respectively. Experiment results on synthetic data support our theoretical claims. Moreover, plug-in implementations built on several baselines yield general improvement across multiple benchmarks, highlighting the effectiveness in real-world applications. |
| title | Online Time Series Forecasting with Theoretical Guarantees |
| topic | Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.18281 |