Bayesian Prediction under Moment Conditioning
Fuente:
arXiv
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| Hauptverfasser: | , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866914407652524032 |
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| author | Polson, Nicholas G. Zantedeschi, Daniel |
| author_facet | Polson, Nicholas G. Zantedeschi, Daniel |
| contents | Prediction is a central task of statistics and machine learning, yet many inferential settings provide only partial information, typically in the form of moment constraints or estimating equations. We develop a finite, fully Bayesian framework for propagating such partial information through predictive distributions. Building on de Finetti's representation theorem, we construct a curvature-adaptive version of exchangeable updating that operates directly under finite constraints, yielding an explicit discrete-Gaussian mixture that quantifies predictive uncertainty. The resulting finite-sample bounds depend on the smallest eigenvalue of the information-geometric Hessian, which measures the curvature and identification strength of the constraint manifold. This approach unifies empirical likelihood, Bayesian empirical likelihood, and generalized method-of-moments estimation within a common predictive geometry. On the operational side, it provides computable curvature-sensitive uncertainty bounds for constrained prediction; on the theoretical side, it recovers de Finetti's coherence, Doob's martingale convergence and local asymptotic normality as limiting cases of the same finite mechanism. Our framework thus offers a constructive bridge between partial information and full Bayesian prediction. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_20742 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Bayesian Prediction under Moment Conditioning Polson, Nicholas G. Zantedeschi, Daniel Statistics Theory Prediction is a central task of statistics and machine learning, yet many inferential settings provide only partial information, typically in the form of moment constraints or estimating equations. We develop a finite, fully Bayesian framework for propagating such partial information through predictive distributions. Building on de Finetti's representation theorem, we construct a curvature-adaptive version of exchangeable updating that operates directly under finite constraints, yielding an explicit discrete-Gaussian mixture that quantifies predictive uncertainty. The resulting finite-sample bounds depend on the smallest eigenvalue of the information-geometric Hessian, which measures the curvature and identification strength of the constraint manifold. This approach unifies empirical likelihood, Bayesian empirical likelihood, and generalized method-of-moments estimation within a common predictive geometry. On the operational side, it provides computable curvature-sensitive uncertainty bounds for constrained prediction; on the theoretical side, it recovers de Finetti's coherence, Doob's martingale convergence and local asymptotic normality as limiting cases of the same finite mechanism. Our framework thus offers a constructive bridge between partial information and full Bayesian prediction. |
| title | Bayesian Prediction under Moment Conditioning |
| topic | Statistics Theory |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.20742 |