Crisis-Resilient Portfolio Management via Graph-based Spatio-Temporal Learning
Fuente:
arXiv
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866909867021697024 |
|---|---|
| author | Li, Zan Fan, Rui |
| author_facet | Li, Zan Fan, Rui |
| contents | Financial time series forecasting faces a fundamental challenge: predicting optimal asset allocations requires understanding regime-dependent correlation structures that transform during crisis periods. Existing graph-based spatio-temporal learning approaches rely on predetermined graph topologies--correlation thresholds, sector classifications--that fail to adapt when market dynamics shift across different crisis mechanisms: credit contagion, pandemic shocks, or inflation-driven selloffs.
We present CRISP (Crisis-Resilient Investment through Spatio-temporal Patterns), a graph-based spatio-temporal learning framework that encodes spatial relationships via Graph Convolutional Networks and temporal dynamics via BiLSTM with self-attention, then learns sparse structures through multi-head Graph Attention Networks. Unlike fixed-topology methods, CRISP discovers which asset relationships matter through attention mechanisms, filtering 92.5% of connections as noise while preserving crisis-relevant dependencies for accurate regime-specific predictions.
Trained on 2005--2021 data encompassing credit and pandemic crises, CRISP demonstrates robust generalization to 2022--2024 inflation-driven markets--a fundamentally different regime--by accurately forecasting regime-appropriate correlation structures. This enables adaptive portfolio allocation that maintains profitability during downturns, achieving Sharpe ratio 3.76: 707% improvement over equal-weight baselines and 94% improvement over static graph methods. Learned attention weights provide interpretable regime detection, with defensive cluster attention strengthening 49% during crises versus 31% market-wide--emergent behavior from learning to forecast rather than imposing assumptions. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_20868 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Crisis-Resilient Portfolio Management via Graph-based Spatio-Temporal Learning Li, Zan Fan, Rui Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science Financial time series forecasting faces a fundamental challenge: predicting optimal asset allocations requires understanding regime-dependent correlation structures that transform during crisis periods. Existing graph-based spatio-temporal learning approaches rely on predetermined graph topologies--correlation thresholds, sector classifications--that fail to adapt when market dynamics shift across different crisis mechanisms: credit contagion, pandemic shocks, or inflation-driven selloffs. We present CRISP (Crisis-Resilient Investment through Spatio-temporal Patterns), a graph-based spatio-temporal learning framework that encodes spatial relationships via Graph Convolutional Networks and temporal dynamics via BiLSTM with self-attention, then learns sparse structures through multi-head Graph Attention Networks. Unlike fixed-topology methods, CRISP discovers which asset relationships matter through attention mechanisms, filtering 92.5% of connections as noise while preserving crisis-relevant dependencies for accurate regime-specific predictions. Trained on 2005--2021 data encompassing credit and pandemic crises, CRISP demonstrates robust generalization to 2022--2024 inflation-driven markets--a fundamentally different regime--by accurately forecasting regime-appropriate correlation structures. This enables adaptive portfolio allocation that maintains profitability during downturns, achieving Sharpe ratio 3.76: 707% improvement over equal-weight baselines and 94% improvement over static graph methods. Learned attention weights provide interpretable regime detection, with defensive cluster attention strengthening 49% during crises versus 31% market-wide--emergent behavior from learning to forecast rather than imposing assumptions. |
| title | Crisis-Resilient Portfolio Management via Graph-based Spatio-Temporal Learning |
| topic | Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.20868 |