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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Shankar, Kunal, Gaikwad, Ninad, Dubey, Anamika
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.21044
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author Shankar, Kunal
Gaikwad, Ninad
Dubey, Anamika
author_facet Shankar, Kunal
Gaikwad, Ninad
Dubey, Anamika
contents Achieving the flexibility from house heating, cooling, and ventilation systems (HVAC) has the potential to enable large-scale demand response by aggregating HVAC load adjustments across many homes. This demand response strategy helps distribution grid to flexibly ramp-up or ramp-down local load demand so that it can optimally match the bulk power system generation profile. However, achieving this capability requires house thermal models that are both computationally efficient and robust to operating conditions. In this work, parameters of the Resistance-Capacitance (RC) network thermal model for houses are estimated using three optimization algorithms: Nonlinear Least Squares (NLS), Batch Estimation (BE), and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). The resulting models are evaluated through a Forward-Simulation across four different seasons and three setpoints. The results illustrate a principled way of selecting reduced order models and estimation methods with respect to the robustness offered to seasonal and setpoint variations in training-testing datasets
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_21044
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle House Thermal Model Estimation: Robustness Across Seasons and Setpoints
Shankar, Kunal
Gaikwad, Ninad
Dubey, Anamika
Systems and Control
Achieving the flexibility from house heating, cooling, and ventilation systems (HVAC) has the potential to enable large-scale demand response by aggregating HVAC load adjustments across many homes. This demand response strategy helps distribution grid to flexibly ramp-up or ramp-down local load demand so that it can optimally match the bulk power system generation profile. However, achieving this capability requires house thermal models that are both computationally efficient and robust to operating conditions. In this work, parameters of the Resistance-Capacitance (RC) network thermal model for houses are estimated using three optimization algorithms: Nonlinear Least Squares (NLS), Batch Estimation (BE), and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). The resulting models are evaluated through a Forward-Simulation across four different seasons and three setpoints. The results illustrate a principled way of selecting reduced order models and estimation methods with respect to the robustness offered to seasonal and setpoint variations in training-testing datasets
title House Thermal Model Estimation: Robustness Across Seasons and Setpoints
topic Systems and Control
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.21044