Beliefs about Bots: How Employers Plan for AI in White-Collar Work
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| _version_ | 1866915576398479360 |
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| author | Brüll, Eduard Mäurer, Samuel Rostam-Afschar, Davud |
| author_facet | Brüll, Eduard Mäurer, Samuel Rostam-Afschar, Davud |
| contents | We provide experimental evidence on how employers adjust expectations to automation risk in high-skill, white-collar work. Using a randomized information intervention among tax advisors in Germany, we show that firms systematically underestimate automatability. Information provision raises risk perceptions, especially for routine-intensive roles. Yet, it leaves short-run hiring plans unchanged. Instead, updated beliefs increase productivity and financial expectations with minor wage adjustments, implying within-firm inequality like limited rent-sharing. Employers also anticipate new tasks in legal tech, compliance, and AI interaction, and report higher training and adoption intentions. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_21959 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Beliefs about Bots: How Employers Plan for AI in White-Collar Work Brüll, Eduard Mäurer, Samuel Rostam-Afschar, Davud General Economics Economics We provide experimental evidence on how employers adjust expectations to automation risk in high-skill, white-collar work. Using a randomized information intervention among tax advisors in Germany, we show that firms systematically underestimate automatability. Information provision raises risk perceptions, especially for routine-intensive roles. Yet, it leaves short-run hiring plans unchanged. Instead, updated beliefs increase productivity and financial expectations with minor wage adjustments, implying within-firm inequality like limited rent-sharing. Employers also anticipate new tasks in legal tech, compliance, and AI interaction, and report higher training and adoption intentions. |
| title | Beliefs about Bots: How Employers Plan for AI in White-Collar Work |
| topic | General Economics Economics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.21959 |