Productivity Beliefs and Efficiency in Science

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Bertolotti, Fabio, Myers, Kyle, Tham, Wei Yang
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Bertolotti, Fabio
Myers, Kyle
Tham, Wei Yang
author_facet Bertolotti, Fabio
Myers, Kyle
Tham, Wei Yang
contents We develop a method to estimate producers' productivity beliefs when output quantities and input prices are unobservable, and we use it to evaluate the market for science. Our model of researchers' labor supply shows how their willingness to pay for inputs reveals their productivity beliefs. We estimate the model's parameters using data from a nationally representative survey of researchers and find the distribution of productivity to be very skewed. Our counterfactuals indicate that a more efficient allocation of the current budget could be worth billions of dollars. There are substantial gains from developing new ways of identifying talented scientists.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_24916
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Productivity Beliefs and Efficiency in Science
Bertolotti, Fabio
Myers, Kyle
Tham, Wei Yang
General Economics
Economics
We develop a method to estimate producers' productivity beliefs when output quantities and input prices are unobservable, and we use it to evaluate the market for science. Our model of researchers' labor supply shows how their willingness to pay for inputs reveals their productivity beliefs. We estimate the model's parameters using data from a nationally representative survey of researchers and find the distribution of productivity to be very skewed. Our counterfactuals indicate that a more efficient allocation of the current budget could be worth billions of dollars. There are substantial gains from developing new ways of identifying talented scientists.
title Productivity Beliefs and Efficiency in Science
topic General Economics
Economics
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.24916