Short-Run Multi-Outcome Effects of Nightlife Regulation in San Juan
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866918178200748032 |
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| author | Arroyo, Jorge A. |
| author_facet | Arroyo, Jorge A. |
| contents | I evaluate San Juan, Puerto Rico's late-night alcohol sales ordinance using a multi-outcome synthetic control that pools economic and public-safety series. I show that a common-weight estimator clarifies mechanisms under low-rank outcome structure. I find economically meaningful reallocations in targeted sectors -- restaurants and bars, gasoline and convenience, and hospitality employment -- while late-night public disorder arrests and violent crime show no clear departures from pre-policy trends. The short post-policy window and small donor pool limit statistical power; joint conformal and permutation tests do not reject the null at conventional thresholds. I therefore emphasize effect magnitudes, temporal persistence, and pre-trend fit over formal significance. Code and diagnostics are available for replication. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2510_25782 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Short-Run Multi-Outcome Effects of Nightlife Regulation in San Juan Arroyo, Jorge A. General Economics Economics 62P20, 62P25, 91B82 I evaluate San Juan, Puerto Rico's late-night alcohol sales ordinance using a multi-outcome synthetic control that pools economic and public-safety series. I show that a common-weight estimator clarifies mechanisms under low-rank outcome structure. I find economically meaningful reallocations in targeted sectors -- restaurants and bars, gasoline and convenience, and hospitality employment -- while late-night public disorder arrests and violent crime show no clear departures from pre-policy trends. The short post-policy window and small donor pool limit statistical power; joint conformal and permutation tests do not reject the null at conventional thresholds. I therefore emphasize effect magnitudes, temporal persistence, and pre-trend fit over formal significance. Code and diagnostics are available for replication. |
| title | Short-Run Multi-Outcome Effects of Nightlife Regulation in San Juan |
| topic | General Economics Economics 62P20, 62P25, 91B82 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.25782 |