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Main Authors: González-Hernández, Diego, Wolfson, Molly, Hennawi, Joseph F.
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.02808
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author González-Hernández, Diego
Wolfson, Molly
Hennawi, Joseph F.
author_facet González-Hernández, Diego
Wolfson, Molly
Hennawi, Joseph F.
contents We present an application of the Balanced Neural Ratio Estimation (BNRE) algorithm to improve the statistical validity of parameter estimates used to characterize the Epoch of Reionization, where the common assumption of a multivariate Gaussian likelihood leads to overconfident and biased posterior distributions. Using a two-parameter model of the Ly$α$ forest autocorrelation function, we show that BNRE yields posterior distributions that are significantly better calibrated than those obtained under the Gaussian likelihood assumption, as verified through the Test of Accuracy with Random Points (TARP) and Simulation-Based Calibration (SBC) diagnostics. These results demonstrate the potential of Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) methods, and in particular BNRE, to provide statistically robust parameter constraints within existing astrophysical modeling frameworks.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2511_02808
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Reliable Parameter Inference for the Epoch of Reionization using Balanced Neural Ratio Estimation
González-Hernández, Diego
Wolfson, Molly
Hennawi, Joseph F.
Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics
We present an application of the Balanced Neural Ratio Estimation (BNRE) algorithm to improve the statistical validity of parameter estimates used to characterize the Epoch of Reionization, where the common assumption of a multivariate Gaussian likelihood leads to overconfident and biased posterior distributions. Using a two-parameter model of the Ly$α$ forest autocorrelation function, we show that BNRE yields posterior distributions that are significantly better calibrated than those obtained under the Gaussian likelihood assumption, as verified through the Test of Accuracy with Random Points (TARP) and Simulation-Based Calibration (SBC) diagnostics. These results demonstrate the potential of Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) methods, and in particular BNRE, to provide statistically robust parameter constraints within existing astrophysical modeling frameworks.
title Reliable Parameter Inference for the Epoch of Reionization using Balanced Neural Ratio Estimation
topic Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.02808