Exponential Spatiotemporal GARCH Model with Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Chrisko, Ariane Nidelle Meli, Otto, Philipp, Schmid, Wolfgang
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Chrisko, Ariane Nidelle Meli
Otto, Philipp
Schmid, Wolfgang
author_facet Chrisko, Ariane Nidelle Meli
Otto, Philipp
Schmid, Wolfgang
contents This paper introduces a spatiotemporal exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (spatiotemporal E-GARCH) model, extending traditional spatiotemporal GARCH models by incorporating asymmetric volatility spillovers, while also generalising the time-series E-GARCH model to a spatiotemporal setting with instantaneous, potentially asymmetric volatility spillovers across space. The model allows for both temporal and spatial dependencies in volatility dynamics, capturing how financial shocks propagate across time, space, and network structures. We establish the theoretical properties of the model, deriving stationarity conditions and moment existence results. For estimation, we propose a quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator and assess its finite-sample performance through Monte Carlo simulations. Empirically, we apply the model to financial networks, specifically analysing volatility spillovers in stock markets. We compare different network structures and analyse asymmetric effects in instantaneous volatility interactions.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2511_05126
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Exponential Spatiotemporal GARCH Model with Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers
Chrisko, Ariane Nidelle Meli
Otto, Philipp
Schmid, Wolfgang
Applications
62M10, 62H11, 62P05
This paper introduces a spatiotemporal exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (spatiotemporal E-GARCH) model, extending traditional spatiotemporal GARCH models by incorporating asymmetric volatility spillovers, while also generalising the time-series E-GARCH model to a spatiotemporal setting with instantaneous, potentially asymmetric volatility spillovers across space. The model allows for both temporal and spatial dependencies in volatility dynamics, capturing how financial shocks propagate across time, space, and network structures. We establish the theoretical properties of the model, deriving stationarity conditions and moment existence results. For estimation, we propose a quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator and assess its finite-sample performance through Monte Carlo simulations. Empirically, we apply the model to financial networks, specifically analysing volatility spillovers in stock markets. We compare different network structures and analyse asymmetric effects in instantaneous volatility interactions.
title Exponential Spatiotemporal GARCH Model with Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers
topic Applications
62M10, 62H11, 62P05
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.05126