Predicting the Future by Retrieving the Past
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866918192077602816 |
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| author | Du, Dazhao Han, Tao Guo, Song |
| author_facet | Du, Dazhao Han, Tao Guo, Song |
| contents | Deep learning models such as MLP, Transformer, and TCN have achieved remarkable success in univariate time series forecasting, typically relying on sliding window samples from historical data for training. However, while these models implicitly compress historical information into their parameters during training, they are unable to explicitly and dynamically access this global knowledge during inference, relying only on the local context within the lookback window. This results in an underutilization of rich patterns from the global history. To bridge this gap, we propose Predicting the Future by Retrieving the Past (PFRP), a novel approach that explicitly integrates global historical data to enhance forecasting accuracy. Specifically, we construct a Global Memory Bank (GMB) to effectively store and manage global historical patterns. A retrieval mechanism is then employed to extract similar patterns from the GMB, enabling the generation of global predictions. By adaptively combining these global predictions with the outputs of any local prediction model, PFRP produces more accurate and interpretable forecasts. Extensive experiments conducted on seven real-world datasets demonstrate that PFRP significantly enhances the average performance of advanced univariate forecasting models by 8.4\%. Codes can be found in https://github.com/ddz16/PFRP. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2511_05859 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Predicting the Future by Retrieving the Past Du, Dazhao Han, Tao Guo, Song Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Deep learning models such as MLP, Transformer, and TCN have achieved remarkable success in univariate time series forecasting, typically relying on sliding window samples from historical data for training. However, while these models implicitly compress historical information into their parameters during training, they are unable to explicitly and dynamically access this global knowledge during inference, relying only on the local context within the lookback window. This results in an underutilization of rich patterns from the global history. To bridge this gap, we propose Predicting the Future by Retrieving the Past (PFRP), a novel approach that explicitly integrates global historical data to enhance forecasting accuracy. Specifically, we construct a Global Memory Bank (GMB) to effectively store and manage global historical patterns. A retrieval mechanism is then employed to extract similar patterns from the GMB, enabling the generation of global predictions. By adaptively combining these global predictions with the outputs of any local prediction model, PFRP produces more accurate and interpretable forecasts. Extensive experiments conducted on seven real-world datasets demonstrate that PFRP significantly enhances the average performance of advanced univariate forecasting models by 8.4\%. Codes can be found in https://github.com/ddz16/PFRP. |
| title | Predicting the Future by Retrieving the Past |
| topic | Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.05859 |