Generative Pricing of Basket Options via Signature-Conditioned Mixture Density Networks

Fuente: arXiv
Gespeichert in:
Bibliographische Detailangaben
Hauptverfasser: Molla, Hasib Uddin, Ware, Antony, Asadzadeh, Ilnaz, Fernandes, Nelson Mesquita
Format: Preprint
Veröffentlicht: 2025
Schlagworte:
Online-Zugang:
Tags: Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
_version_ 1866915822675427328
author Molla, Hasib Uddin
Ware, Antony
Asadzadeh, Ilnaz
Fernandes, Nelson Mesquita
author_facet Molla, Hasib Uddin
Ware, Antony
Asadzadeh, Ilnaz
Fernandes, Nelson Mesquita
contents We present a generative framework for pricing European-style basket options by learning the conditional terminal distribution of the log arithmetic-weighted basket return. A Mixture Density Network (MDN) maps time-varying market inputs encoded via truncated path signatures to the full terminal density in a single forward pass. Traditional approaches either impose restrictive assumptions or require costly re-simulation whenever inputs change, limiting real-time use. Trained on Monte Carlo (MC) under GBM with time-varying volatility or local volatility, the MDN acts as a reusable surrogate distribution: once trained, it prices new scenarios by integrating the learned density. Across maturities, correlations, and basket weights, the learned densities closely match MC (low KL) and produce small pricing errors, while enabling \emph{train-once, price-anywhere} reuse at inference-time latency.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2511_09061
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Generative Pricing of Basket Options via Signature-Conditioned Mixture Density Networks
Molla, Hasib Uddin
Ware, Antony
Asadzadeh, Ilnaz
Fernandes, Nelson Mesquita
Pricing of Securities
We present a generative framework for pricing European-style basket options by learning the conditional terminal distribution of the log arithmetic-weighted basket return. A Mixture Density Network (MDN) maps time-varying market inputs encoded via truncated path signatures to the full terminal density in a single forward pass. Traditional approaches either impose restrictive assumptions or require costly re-simulation whenever inputs change, limiting real-time use. Trained on Monte Carlo (MC) under GBM with time-varying volatility or local volatility, the MDN acts as a reusable surrogate distribution: once trained, it prices new scenarios by integrating the learned density. Across maturities, correlations, and basket weights, the learned densities closely match MC (low KL) and produce small pricing errors, while enabling \emph{train-once, price-anywhere} reuse at inference-time latency.
title Generative Pricing of Basket Options via Signature-Conditioned Mixture Density Networks
topic Pricing of Securities
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.09061