Runtime Safety and Reach-avoid Prediction of Stochastic Systems via Observation-aware Barrier Functions

Fuente: arXiv
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Hauptverfasser: Feng, Shenghua, An, Jie, Xu, Fanjiang
Format: Preprint
Veröffentlicht: 2025
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author Feng, Shenghua
An, Jie
Xu, Fanjiang
author_facet Feng, Shenghua
An, Jie
Xu, Fanjiang
contents Stochastic dynamical systems have emerged as fundamental models across numerous application domains, providing powerful mathematical representations for capturing uncertain system behavior. In this paper, we address the problem of runtime safety and reach-avoid probability prediction for discrete-time stochastic systems with online observations, i.e., estimating the probability that the system satisfies a given safety or reach-avoid specification. Unlike traditional approaches that rely solely on offline models, we propose a framework that incorporates real-time observations to dynamically refine probability estimates for safety and reach-avoid events. By introducing observation-aware barrier functions, our method adaptively updates probability bounds as new observations are collected, combining efficient offline computation with online backward iteration. This approach enables rigorous and responsive prediction of safety and reach-avoid probabilities under uncertainty. In addition to the theoretical guarantees, experimental results on benchmark systems demonstrate the practical effectiveness of the proposed method.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2511_09192
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Runtime Safety and Reach-avoid Prediction of Stochastic Systems via Observation-aware Barrier Functions
Feng, Shenghua
An, Jie
Xu, Fanjiang
Systems and Control
Stochastic dynamical systems have emerged as fundamental models across numerous application domains, providing powerful mathematical representations for capturing uncertain system behavior. In this paper, we address the problem of runtime safety and reach-avoid probability prediction for discrete-time stochastic systems with online observations, i.e., estimating the probability that the system satisfies a given safety or reach-avoid specification. Unlike traditional approaches that rely solely on offline models, we propose a framework that incorporates real-time observations to dynamically refine probability estimates for safety and reach-avoid events. By introducing observation-aware barrier functions, our method adaptively updates probability bounds as new observations are collected, combining efficient offline computation with online backward iteration. This approach enables rigorous and responsive prediction of safety and reach-avoid probabilities under uncertainty. In addition to the theoretical guarantees, experimental results on benchmark systems demonstrate the practical effectiveness of the proposed method.
title Runtime Safety and Reach-avoid Prediction of Stochastic Systems via Observation-aware Barrier Functions
topic Systems and Control
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.09192