Modeling Uncertainty Trends for Timely Retrieval in Dynamic RAG

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Li, Bo, Tian, Tian, Xu, Zhenghua, Cheng, Hao, Zhang, Shikun, Ye, Wei
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Li, Bo
Tian, Tian
Xu, Zhenghua
Cheng, Hao
Zhang, Shikun
Ye, Wei
author_facet Li, Bo
Tian, Tian
Xu, Zhenghua
Cheng, Hao
Zhang, Shikun
Ye, Wei
contents Dynamic retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) allows large language models (LLMs) to fetch external knowledge on demand, offering greater adaptability than static RAG. A central challenge in this setting lies in determining the optimal timing for retrieval. Existing methods often trigger retrieval based on low token-level confidence, which may lead to delayed intervention after errors have already propagated. We introduce Entropy-Trend Constraint (ETC), a training-free method that determines optimal retrieval timing by modeling the dynamics of token-level uncertainty. Specifically, ETC utilizes first- and second-order differences of the entropy sequence to detect emerging uncertainty trends, enabling earlier and more precise retrieval. Experiments on six QA benchmarks with three LLM backbones demonstrate that ETC consistently outperforms strong baselines while reducing retrieval frequency. ETC is particularly effective in domain-specific scenarios, exhibiting robust generalization capabilities. Ablation studies and qualitative analyses further confirm that trend-aware uncertainty modeling yields more effective retrieval timing. The method is plug-and-play, model-agnostic, and readily integrable into existing decoding pipelines. Implementation code is included in the supplementary materials.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2511_09980
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Modeling Uncertainty Trends for Timely Retrieval in Dynamic RAG
Li, Bo
Tian, Tian
Xu, Zhenghua
Cheng, Hao
Zhang, Shikun
Ye, Wei
Computation and Language
Dynamic retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) allows large language models (LLMs) to fetch external knowledge on demand, offering greater adaptability than static RAG. A central challenge in this setting lies in determining the optimal timing for retrieval. Existing methods often trigger retrieval based on low token-level confidence, which may lead to delayed intervention after errors have already propagated. We introduce Entropy-Trend Constraint (ETC), a training-free method that determines optimal retrieval timing by modeling the dynamics of token-level uncertainty. Specifically, ETC utilizes first- and second-order differences of the entropy sequence to detect emerging uncertainty trends, enabling earlier and more precise retrieval. Experiments on six QA benchmarks with three LLM backbones demonstrate that ETC consistently outperforms strong baselines while reducing retrieval frequency. ETC is particularly effective in domain-specific scenarios, exhibiting robust generalization capabilities. Ablation studies and qualitative analyses further confirm that trend-aware uncertainty modeling yields more effective retrieval timing. The method is plug-and-play, model-agnostic, and readily integrable into existing decoding pipelines. Implementation code is included in the supplementary materials.
title Modeling Uncertainty Trends for Timely Retrieval in Dynamic RAG
topic Computation and Language
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.09980