Noise-proofing Universal Portfolio Shrinkage

Fuente: arXiv
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Hauptverfasser: Ruelloux, Paul, Bongiorno, Christian, Challet, Damien
Format: Preprint
Veröffentlicht: 2025
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author Ruelloux, Paul
Bongiorno, Christian
Challet, Damien
author_facet Ruelloux, Paul
Bongiorno, Christian
Challet, Damien
contents We enhance the Universal Portfolio Shrinkage Approximator (UPSA) of Kelly et al. (2023) by making it more robust with respect to estimation noise and covariate shift. UPSA optimizes the realized Sharpe ratio using a relatively small calibration window, leveraging ridge penalties and cross-validation to yield better portfolios. Yet, it still suffers from the staggering amount of noise in financial data. We propose two methods to make UPSA more robust and improve its efficiency: time-averaging of the optimal penalty weights and using the Average Oracle correlation eigenvalues to make covariance matrices less noisy and more robust to covariate shift. Combining these two long-term averages outperforms UPSA by a large margin in most specifications.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2511_10478
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Noise-proofing Universal Portfolio Shrinkage
Ruelloux, Paul
Bongiorno, Christian
Challet, Damien
Risk Management
Portfolio Management
We enhance the Universal Portfolio Shrinkage Approximator (UPSA) of Kelly et al. (2023) by making it more robust with respect to estimation noise and covariate shift. UPSA optimizes the realized Sharpe ratio using a relatively small calibration window, leveraging ridge penalties and cross-validation to yield better portfolios. Yet, it still suffers from the staggering amount of noise in financial data. We propose two methods to make UPSA more robust and improve its efficiency: time-averaging of the optimal penalty weights and using the Average Oracle correlation eigenvalues to make covariance matrices less noisy and more robust to covariate shift. Combining these two long-term averages outperforms UPSA by a large margin in most specifications.
title Noise-proofing Universal Portfolio Shrinkage
topic Risk Management
Portfolio Management
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.10478